<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML xmlns:o = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1522" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY id=role_body style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"
bottomMargin=7 leftMargin=7 topMargin=7 rightMargin=7>
<DIV><SPAN class=243310915-24112005>We should not assume that "we" own
space.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=243310915-24112005>The Japanese have quietly built a
very</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=243310915-24112005>sophisticated space program.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=243310915-24112005></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
paleopsych-bounces@paleopsych.org
[mailto:paleopsych-bounces@paleopsych.org]<B>On Behalf Of
</B>HowlBloom@aol.com<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, November 23, 2005 7:51
PM<BR><B>To:</B> kcox12@houston.rr.com; lcannon@buzzaldrin.com;
rebeccacross@comcast.net; BobKrone@aol.com; Smicharlie@aol.com;
gaianh@yahoo.com; david.j.korsmeyer@nasa.gov; dlivings@davidlivingston.com;
DWSPACE@aol.com; richard.e.eckelkamp@nasa.gov; edgarmitchell@email.msn.com;
edward.kiker@SMDC-CS.ARMY.MIL; arcoscielos@yahoo.com; ebenjacob@ucsd.edu;
fwhite66@post.harvard.edu; raymond.j.garbos@baesystems.com;
feng.hsu1@jsc.nasa.gov; hlyon@marlow.com; isaacsonj@hotmail.com;
JSSDesign@aol.com; KTConnor@sprynet.com; DrRSKirby@aol.com;
lgdowning@sbcglobal.net; LonnieSchorer@aol.com;
m.schwab@homeplanetdefense.org; m.f.hannon@worldnet.att.net; LangdonM@aol.com;
paul.werbos@verizon.net; ray.chase@anser.org; SherryEBell@aol.com;
tommatula@hotmail.com; hope.grove@comcast.net; thomas.e.diegelman@nasa.gov;
taylort@mac.com; msdror@mscc.huji.ac.il<BR><B>Cc:</B> planetbloom@hotmail.com;
paleopsych@paleopsych.org<BR><B>Subject:</B> [Paleopsych] Re: Commercial ISS
and Lunar Resupply Options<BR><BR></FONT></DIV><FONT id=role_document
face=Arial color=#000000 size=3>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT
size=3>The NASA report is extremely exciting. Congratulations on
stimulating the space agency to think commercial.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT
size=3></FONT></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3>The
report leaves out one tried and true component that could help achieve
its goals--the X-Prize. A series of X-Prize contests leading to
low-earth orbit, fuel depots in space, and eventually the moon and beyond may
prove far more effective in mobilizing talent than inviting bids.
</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT
size=3></FONT></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3>The
X-Prize competitors and sponsors have proven that a competition
between technologies forced to show their stuff is far more
convincing, exciting, and effective, than a battle between batches of
paperwork.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN></B> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT
size=3>Howard</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN></B> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">NASA and the
Business of Space</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> </SPAN><SPAN
style="COLOR: black"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">STATUS
REPORT</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><BR><B>Date
Released:</B> Friday, November 18, 2005<BR>Source: <A
href="http://www.nasa.gov/" target=_blank><SPAN
style="COLOR: #004080; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">NASA HQ</SPAN></A>
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><IMG
id=MA1.1132804234 height=32 alt=image src="cid:243310915@24112005-1f67"
width=32 align=left DATASIZE="73" v:shapes="_x0000_s1026"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">American
Astronautical Society 52nd Annual Conference<BR>Michael D. Griffin <BR>NASA
Administrator <BR>15 November 2005 <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">When President
Bush announced the Vision for Space Exploration in January 2004, he made many
specific points, including one which has been little noted, but which we here
all believe; that the pursuit of the Vision will enhance America's economic,
scientific and security interests. He also made it clear that the first step
in the plan was to use the Space Shuttle to complete the assembly of the
International Space Station (ISS), after which the ISS would be used to
further the goals of exploration beyond low Earth orbit. These issues are all
closely related, and I believe </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">it is time to
discuss in more detail how the ISS will be used to accomplish them, and how it
will fit into a broader strategy for 21st century space exploration of the
Moon, Mars and beyond in a way that will spur commerce, advance scientific
knowledge, and expand humanity's horizons. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">We are entering
the dawn of the true space age. Our nation has the opportunity to lead the
way. It is an opportunity we are eager to pursue, and one which we are
unwilling to postpone. </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But the exploration
of the solar system cannot be what we want it to be as an enterprise borne
solely by the American taxpayer, or even by the taxpayers of the nations
willing to join with us in this enterprise.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">If we are to make
the expansion and development of the space frontier an integral part of what
it is that human societies do, then these activities must, as quickly as
possible, assume an economic dimension as well. Government-directed space
activity must become a lesser rather than a greater part of what humans do in
space. To this end, it is up to us at NASA to use the challenge of the Vision
for Space Exploration to foster the commercial opportunities which are
inherent to this exciting endeavor. Our strategy to implement the Vision must,
and we believe does, have the potential to open a genuine and sustainable era
of space commerce. And the International Space Station will provide the first
glimpses into this new era. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Before we pursue
this thought further, let us summarize a few statistics from the ISS program.
On November 2nd, we marked the fifth year of consecutive human occupancy of
the Station. The Station has hosted 97 visitors from ten countries in its
approximately 425 cubic meters, a volume roughly the size of a typical
three-bedroom home. Of these, 29 have been crew members of the twelve ISS
expeditions which have flown to date. With the most recent spacewalk by
Expedition 12 Commander Bill McArthur and Flight Engineer Valery Tokarev, 63
have been conducted in support of ISS assembly, totaling nearly 380 hours. And
through the partnership we have with 15 other nations, we have learned to work
together on an incredibly complex systems engineering project. While it
certainly has not always gone smoothly, the simple fact of its accomplishment
has been an amazing feat. My oft-stated view is that the international
partnership is, in fact, the most important long-term benefit to be derived
from the ISS program. I think it is a harbinger of what we can accomplish in
the future as we move forward to even more ambitious objectives in space.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Indeed, the value
of this international collaboration was endorsed once again by a recent vote
in Congress, which lessened certain restrictions placed on our ability to
cooperate with Russia in the arena of manned spaceflight. This Congressional
action helps to ensure the continuous presence of American astronauts on the
station. It continues to reflect our government's commitment to
nonproliferation objectives, while recognizing the value of international
cooperation in space exploration. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">So, how can the
ISS that we are building today help us to move beyond low Earth orbit
tomorrow? <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">To begin, we are
focusing human research on ISS on the highest risks to crew health and other
issues we will face on long exploratory missions. This research will help us
understand the effects of long duration spaceflight on the human body, such as
bone and muscle loss, so that we can develop medical standards and protocols
to manage such risks. We have already had some successful anecdotal experience
among ISS crewmembers with exercise countermeasures. Perhaps ISS-based
research will one day help us to evaluate the efficacy of drugs to counter
osteoporosis, or long-term exposure to the radiation environment, or to test
advanced radiation detectors. The station will help us learn to deal with crew
stress on long missions, to enable them to remain emotionally healthy.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B
style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">With the ISS as a
testbed, we can learn to develop the medical technologies, including small and
reliable medical sensors and new telemedicine techniques, needed for missions
far from home. A milestone in that arena was achieved a year ago, when the
journal Radiology published its first research paper submitted directly from
the Station, ISS Science Officer Mike Fincke's account of the first use of
ultrasound in space for a shoulder examination. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The ISS can host,
and test, developmental versions of the new lox/methane engines we will need
for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), and many other systems that we will
need for Mars. These include the development and verification of environmental
control, life support, and monitoring technologies, air revitalization,
thermal control and multiphase flow technologies, and research into
flammability and fire safety. As I have often said, when we set out for Mars,
it will be like sealing a crew into a submarine and telling them not to ask
for help or return to port for several years. We can't do that today. We have
to be able to do it before people can go to Mars. We'll learn to do it on the
ISS, and later on the Moon. And so, fundamentally, the ISS will allow us to
learn to live and work in space. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">And even though
this research is focused on the tasks associated with setting up research
bases on the Moon and preparing the way for Mars exploration, it will also
benefit millions of people here on Earth. What we learn about bone loss
mitigation and cardiovascular deconditioning, the development of remote
monitoring and medical care, and water reclamation and environmental
characterization technology obviously has broader benefits. One certainly
would not build a space station to achieve these goals. But given that we have
it, we intend to maximize the science return from ISS in ways that will
benefit both space exploration and our society at large.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But now let us turn
to what I believe will be an even greater benefit of the ISS, and that is its
role in the development of space as an economic arena. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In order that we
may devote as much of NASA's budget as possible to the cutting edge of space
exploration, we must seek to reduce the cost of all things routine. Here in
2005, the definition of "routine" certainly should include robust, reliable,
and cost effective access to space for at least small and medium class
payloads. Unfortunately, it does not, and frankly, this is not an area where
it is reasonable to expect government to excel. Within the boundaries of
available technology, when we want an activity to be performed reliably and
efficiently, we in our society look to the competitive pressures of the free
market to achieve these goals. In space, these pressures have been notably
lacking, in part because the space "market" has historically been both
specialized and small. There have been exceptions – notably in the
communications satellite market – but the key word here is "exceptions".
Broadly speaking, the market for space services has never enjoyed either the
breadth or the scale of competition which has led, for example, to today's
highly efficient air transportation services. Without a strong, identifiable
market, the competitive environment necessary to achieve the advantages we
associate with the free market simply cannot arise. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">I believe that with
the advent of the ISS, there will exist for the first time a strong,
identifiable market for "routine" transportation service to and from LEO, and
that this will be only the first step in what will be a huge opportunity for
truly commercial space enterprise, inherent to the Vision for Space
Exploration. I believe that the ISS provides a tremendous opportunity to
promote commercial space ventures that will help us meet our exploration
objectives and at the same time create new jobs and new industry</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The clearly
identifiable market provided by the ISS is that for regular cargo delivery and
return, and crew rotation, especially after we retire the shuttle in 2010, but
earlier should the capability become available. We want to be able to buy
these services from American industry to the fullest extent possible. We
believe that when we engage the engine of competition, these services will be
provided in a more cost-effective fashion than when the government has to do
it. To that end, we have established a commercial crew/cargo project office,
and assigned to it the task of stimulating commercial enterprise in space by
asking American entrepreneurs to provide innovative, cost effective commercial
cargo and crew transportation services to the space station.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">This fall, NASA
will post a draft announcement which seeks proposals from industry for flight
demonstrations to the International Space Station of any combination of the
following: external unpressurized cargo delivery and disposal, internal
pressurized cargo delivery and disposal, internal pressurized cargo delivery
and recovery, and crew transport. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">As these
capabilities are demonstrated in the years ahead, we will solicit proposals
for ongoing ISS transportation services from commercial providers. This
announcement offers the opportunity for industry to develop capabilities that,
once proven, NASA will purchase with great regularity, just as we regularly
purchase launch services for our robotic spacecraft today. Once the
announcement is on the street, we will receive proposals by late January, with
the intent to execute agreements by May of next year. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">This competition
will be open to emerging and established companies, with foreign content
allowed, consistent with American law and policy. Proposals can include any
mix of existing or new designs and hardware. NASA does not have a preferred
solution. Our requirements will be couched, to the maximum extent possible, in
terms of performance objectives, not process. Process requirements which
remain will reflect matters of fundamental safety of life and property, or
other basic matters. It will not be government "business as usual". If those
of you in industry find it to be otherwise, I expect to hear from you on the
matter. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">With this plan,
and providing of course that we retain the support of the Congress necessary
to carry it out, we will put about a half-billion dollars in play over the
five years to promote competition that is good for the private sector and good
for the public interest. I'm confident that this kind of financial incentive,
on different terms than are usual with NASA, or indeed with any government
entity, will result in the emergence of substantial commercial providers. Such
successes will, in their turn, serve as a justification for even greater use
of such "non-traditional" acquisition methods. As I have said in other venues,
my use of the words "non-traditional" here is somewhat tongue-in-cheek,
because what we are talking about is completely traditional in the bulk of our
economy which is not driven by government procurement. In this larger economy,
when there exist customers with specific needs and the financial resources to
satisfy these needs, suppliers compete avidly to meet them. We need more of
this in the space enterprise. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But as stated
earlier, this is only the first step. An explicit goal of our exploration
systems architecture was to provide an avenue for the creation of a
substantial space economy by suitably leveraging government investment to meet
its stated mission requirements.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"> The architecture
we announced in September was designed so that NASA would provide, but would
provide only, the essential transportation elements and infrastructure to get
beyond low Earth orbit. The heavy lift launchers and crew vehicles necessary
to journey beyond LEO cannot, in anything like the near future, be provided by
any entity other than NASA, on behalf of the U.S. government. The analogy I
have used elsewhere is that NASA will build the "interstate highway" that will
allow us to return to the Moon, and to go to Mars. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">We as a nation once had the
systems to build this "interstate highway" leading out into the solar system,
we should have retained and evolved them, but we did not. So we need to
rebuild them.<SPAN style="COLOR: blue"> But the "highways" themselves are not,
and are not supposed to be, the interesting part. What is interesting are the
destinations and, particularly to the point of the present discussion, the
service stations, hotels, and other businesses and accommodations that we will
find at the "exit ramps" of our future "interstate highways" in space. It is
here that a robust commercial market can develop to support our exploration
goals, and eventually to go beyond them. I think we are at the start of
something big, somewhat akin to what we saw with the personal computer 25
years ago. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">To my point,
NASA's exploration architecture does what it must. It fulfills the mission
required of it by the President, according to the terms of a major speech and
written policy. It does so in a fashion which some have labeled as "boring" or
"lacking pizzazz", but which others have observed makes efficient use of the
building blocks that we as a nation own today, and in which the pieces "fit
together like a fine Swiss watch". I believe these seemingly divergent views
are merely two sides are the same coin, reflecting the fact that the plan
delivers what it must, without including what it need not. Nothing else is
acceptable in these fiscally challenging times. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But the building
blocks of our architecture could easily be used to accomplish much more, with
the right leverage from commercial providers. To see how this is so, observe
first that our "1.5 launch solution" separates the smaller crew launch from
that of the heavy, high- value cargo, both on Shuttle-derived launch vehicle
variants. While this approach allows us to meet lunar return mission
requirements with U.S. government systems – no external entities are in the
critical path for mission accomplishment – it does not exclude such entities,
and indeed provides several "hooks" and "scars" by which their services can be
used to facilitate or enhance the mission. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">By the time we are
ready to return to the Moon, the ISS will have been completed and will be in
receipt of routine commercial resupply and crew rotation service for, we hope,
several years. So, if the plan for stimulating the development of ISS
commercial crew rotation capability is successful, it becomes possible to
envision the crew launch phase of the lunar mission being carried out on
commercial systems. This would be a service we could purchase commercially,
leaving the very heavy lift requirements to the government system, for which
it is less likely that there will be other commercial applications during this
period. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Whether or not
this occurs, other options are also possible. Astute observers will note that
the Shuttle-derived heavy lift vehicle (SDHLV) that we have proposed is not,
as a rocket, being optimally utilized for its lunar mission. This is because
some of the fuel in the so-called "Earth departure stage" is used to lift the
lunar payload into Earth orbit, but additional fuel must yet be retained for
the translunar ignition burn of over 3 km/s. From a purely architectural point
of view, the SDHLV is an expensive vehicle, most aptly utilized for lifting
only expensive cargo, such as the man-rated systems it carries. But in our
architecture, some of its lift capacity must be utilized to carry fuel into
low Earth orbit. This is unsatisfying, because when on the ground, fuel is
about the cheapest material employed in any aspect of the space business. Its
value in orbit (at least several thousand dollars per pound) is almost
completely a function of its location rather than intrinsic to its nature. In
contrast, the value of, say, the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM) brought up
on the heavy-lifter will be well over $100 K per pound, most of which
represents its intrinsic cost. The additional value it acquires when
transported to its new position in LEO remains a small part of the total
value. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Logically, then,
we should seek to use the SDHLV only for the highest-value cargo, and
specifically we should desire to place fuel in orbit by the cheapest means
possible, in whatever manner this can be accomplished, whether of high
reliability or not. However, in deciding to embark on a lunar mission, we
cannot afford the consequential damage of not having fuel available when
needed. Recognizing that fact, our mission architecture hauls its own Earth-
departure fuel up from the ground for each trip. But if there were a fuel
depot available on orbit, one capable of being replenished at any time, the
Earth departure stage could after refueling carry significantly more payload
to the Moon, maximizing the utility of the inherently expensive SDHLV for
carrying high-value cargo. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But NASA's
architecture does not feature a fuel depot. Even if it could be afforded
within the budget constraints which we will likely face – and it cannot – it
is philosophically the wrong thing for the government to be doing. It is not
"necessary"; it is not on the critical path of things we "must do" to return
astronauts to the Moon. It is a highly valuable enhancement, but the mission
is not hostage to its availability. It is exactly the type of enterprise which
should be left to industry and to the marketplace. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">So let us look
forward ten or more years, to a time when we are closer to resuming human
exploration of the Moon. The value of such a commercially operated fuel depot
in low Earth orbit at that time is easy to estimate. Such a depot would
support at least two planned missions to the Moon each year. The architecture
which we have advanced places about 150 metric tons in LEO, 25 MT on the Crew
Launch Vehicle and 125 MT on the heavy-lifter. Of the total, about half will
be propellant in the form of liquid oxygen and hydrogen, required for the
translunar injection to the Moon. If the Earth departure stage could be
refueled on-orbit, the crew and all high-value hardware could be launched
using a single SDHLV, and all of this could be sent to the Moon.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">There are several
ways in which the value of this extra capability might be calculated, but at a
conservatively low government price of $10,000/kg for payload in LEO, 250 MT
of fuel for two missions per year is worth $2.5 B, at government rates. If a
commercial provider can supply fuel at a lower cost, both the government and
the contractor will benefit. This is a non-trivial market, and it will only
grow as we continue to fly. The value of fuel for a single Mars mission may be
several billion dollars by itself. Once industry becomes fully convinced that
the United States, in company with its international partners, is headed out
into the solar system for good, I believe that the economics of such a
business will attract multiple competitors, to the benefit of both
stockholders and taxpayers. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Best of all, such
an approach enables us to leverage the value of the government system without
putting commercial fuel deliveries in the critical path. If the depot is there
and is full, we can use it. But with the architecture we have advanced, we can
conduct missions to the Moon without it. The government does not need to have
oversight, or even insight, into the quality and reliability of the fuel
delivery service. If fuel is not delivered, the loss belongs to the operator,
not to the government. If fuel is delivered and maintained in storage, the
contractors are paid, whether or not the government flies its intended
missions. If long-term delivery contracts are negotiated, and the provider
learns to effect deliveries more efficiently, the gain is his, not the
government's. Since fuel is completely fungible, it can be left to the
provider to determine the optimum origin, size and method of a delivering it.
And finally, though I would rather not do it, it is even possible that we
could develop such a market in stages, with the first fuel tank provided by
the government, and then turned over to a commercial provider to store and
maintain fuel for future missions, and to expand the tank farm as warranted by
the market. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">To maintain and
operate the fuel depot, periodic human support may be needed. Living space in
Earth orbit may be required; if so, this presents yet another commercial
opportunity for people like Bob Bigelow, who is already working on developing
space habitats. So the logistics needs of the fuel depot may provide more of
the same opportunities that we will pioneer with ISS. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Fuel and other
consumables will not always be most needed where they are stored. Will orbital
transfer and delivery services develop, with reusable "space tugs" ferrying
goods from centralized stockpiles to other locations? <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The fuel depot
operator will need power for refrigeration and other support systems. This
might well be left to specialty suppliers who know nothing of the storage and
maintenance of cryogenic tank farms, but who know a lot about how to generate
and store power. Could these be standard power modules, developed and
delivered for a fee to locations specified by the user? <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In the course of
conducting many fuel replenishment missions and associated operations,
commercial launch and orbital systems of known and presumably high reliability
will be developed and evolved. Government mission planners will be able to
take advantage of these systems, which will become "known quantities" by
virtue of their track record rather than through the at best mixed blessings
of government development oversight. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">There will also be
a private sector role in supporting a variety of lunar surface systems and
infrastructure, including lunar habitats, power and science facilities,
surface rovers, logistics and resupply, communications and navigation, and in
situ resource utilization equipment. There may or may not be gold on the Moon
– I'm not sure we care – but we may well witness a 21st century gold rush of
sorts when entrepreneurs learn to roast oxygen from the lunar soil, saving a
major portion of the cost of bringing fuel to the lunar surface. Will a time
come when it is more economical to ship liquid oxygen from the lunar surface
to low Earth orbit, then to bring it up from Earth? <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">This will all
start to become "really real" in 10 years or so. As I see it, these are
exactly the kinds of enterprises to which government is poorly suited, but
which in the hands of the right entrepreneur can earn that person a cover on
Fortune magazine. But it will take enlightened government management to bring
it about, management as much in the form of what not to do, as to do. In the
coming years and decades, NASA must focus on its core government role as a
provider of infrastructure broadly applicable to the common good, and too
expensive for any single business entity to develop. NASA must remain on the
frontier, and must conscientiously architect its plans to favor the inclusion
of entrepreneurs through arms-length transactions wherever possible,
restricting the use of classic "prime contracts" to situations where they are
the right tool, not the default tool. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">With the beginning
of space station operations five years ago, we are now at a point children
born at the beginning of the 21st century will live their lives knowing that
there will always be people living and working in space. </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">And the number of
people who will be engaged in such activity will grow by leaps and bounds if
we in government are faithful in executing our role in helping the private
sector to step up to these new opportunities. I hope there are many
entrepreneurs in this audience who have the vision to help us help them
pioneer the commercial space frontier. You, and all those engaged in the quest
that we are undertaking, have my sincere thanks and appreciation.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2 PTSIZE="10"
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">----------<BR>Howard Bloom<BR>Author of The Lucifer
Principle: A Scientific Expedition Into the Forces of History and Global
Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind From The Big Bang to the 21st
Century<BR>Recent Visiting Scholar-Graduate Psychology Department, New York
University; Core Faculty Member, The Graduate
Institute<BR>www.howardbloom.net<BR>www.bigbangtango.net<BR>Founder:
International Paleopsychology Project; founding board member: Epic of
Evolution Society; founding board member, The Darwin Project; founder: The Big
Bang Tango Media Lab; member: New York Academy of Sciences, American
Association for the Advancement of Science, American Psychological Society,
Academy of Political Science, Human Behavior and Evolution Society,
International Society for Human Ethology; advisory board member: Institute for
Accelerating Change ; executive editor -- New Paradigm book series.<BR>For
information on The International Paleopsychology Project, see:
www.paleopsych.org<BR>for two chapters from <BR>The Lucifer Principle: A
Scientific Expedition Into the Forces of History, see
www.howardbloom.net/lucifer<BR>For information on Global Brain: The Evolution
of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century, see
www.howardbloom.net<BR></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></BODY></HTML>