[extropy-chat] Who Anticipated Internet Exploding in 90s?

[Robin Hanson]

On 12/3/2003, Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> >>>I just read someone who said:
> >>>"no one anticipated the explosive diffusion of the Internet
> >>>during the 1990s"
> >>>and I figured that this can't be right - surely someone must
> >>>have had the dumb luck to predict such a thing before 1990.
> >>>Can anyone point to a quote?
> >>I suggest reading through "A Brief History of the Internet" at
> >>http://www.isoc.org/internet/history/brief.shtml .  It has references
> >>to all the milestones in Internet creation, including white papers,
> >>conferences, etc.
> >That is a history of who did what when, not of who predicted what when.
>
>Wow.  Remind me not to have you do any research for me!  :-)
>
>You think that the Internet was based on past network usage and not build on
>wide-spread predictions of how the future network would be used and what it
>had to support?  All requirements documents are based on future predictions.
>There are technical predictions of load, spread, and acceptance. ... Of
>*course* they are chock full of predictions about how great and widespread
>the internet was going to be in the future!
>Some quick examples of documents listed in the reference you dismissed: ...

I did not mean to be dismissive; I meant to indicate that I was wondering
if anyone knew of a quote regarding the particular kind of prediction that
was asked for - a predictions of "explosive diffusion" "during the 1990s."
This is much more specific than general predictions that the internet will
eventually be wonderful.  And none of the specific quotes you offered are
on this specific point.  I agree that such predictions may reside in the
many internet "white papers, conferences, etc".  And this is naturally where
one would start to look if one was willing to spend several weeks
researching this topic.  But I'm not going to put that effort in just to be
able to casually tell a particular person that their claim is mistaken.



Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323