[extropy-chat] I'm back.

[Dan Clemmensen]

Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:

> Dan Clemmensen wrote:
>
>>
>> Unfortunately, this non-quantitative logic does not permit me to 
>> assign a probability to 2006. It only allows me to assert that the 
>> probability increases with time.
>
>
> Yes, well, that's why I assert that the probability increases with 
> time, yet I do not assert that the Singularity will occur on or before 
> May 1, 2006.
>
> Take a deep breath.  Switch over all of your deliberate mental 
> reasoning to thinking in terms of probability density functions.  
> Exhale.  You'll feel much better.
>
> I've accepted as fact the amazing human ability to clearly analyze a 
> mistake, correctly state the rational alternative, and then, smiling 
> cherubically, commit the mistake, but y'know, it's still a bit 
> frustrating to watch it in action.
>
And if I were a horse, I'd run back into a burning barn, I suppose.

Actually, I tried to say that the probability density function has a 
sharp peak somewhere in the region where the technology curve moves 
through the phase transition region. This, coupled, lying on top of the 
increasing slope of the technology curve, makes it very hard to predict 
the crossover.

So my real prediction is "any time now."  I'm willing to listen 
respectfully to anyone who can support a more precise theory.