[extropy-chat] Harv's Explanation for Slow Progress

[Hal Finney]

Harvey writes:

> I would also like to ask:
> Why no singularity 10 years after somebody predicted it on this list?
> Why no AI?  Why no uploading?  Why no robots doing our laundry?  Why no
> flying cars?  Why no space colonies?  Why no immortality pills?
>
> Many predictions have been made in this forum ten years ago.  I am not sure
> that any of the big predictions have actually come true.  Why are the
> expected technological breakthroughs not occurring as fast as predicted?

I question whether anyone on this list made those predictions.
Who predicted the Singularity by 2003?  I remember Eliezer saying 2008,
and Dan Clemmensen is apparently sticking to 2006.  Likewise, did anyone
expect AI, uploading, or laundry robots by today's date?

While I think people did and do anticipate many of these enhancements,
they have generally been put 20-30 years in the future.  The real question
is, in the ten years or so that this list has existed, have we gotten
ten years closer to these advances?

Ironically, the biggest change I see is one no one anticipated, and is
social rather than technical: our ideas have gone from almost total
obscurity to being among the most important and controversial issues
for public discussion and debate.  Who would have imagined ten years
ago that we would have a Presidential Council opining about transhumanism?
Look at the table of contents from their October, 2003 report, at
http://www.bioethics.gov/reports/beyondtherapy/fulldoc.html:

> Chapter One: Biotechnology and the Pursuit of Happiness 
> Chapter Two: Better Children 
> Chapter Three: Superior Performance 
> Chapter Four: Ageless Bodies 
> Chapter Five: Happy Souls 

These topics could have been taken from the subject lines of this list at
any time over the past ten years, and now they are being discussed at the
highest levels: ageless bodies, better children, superior performance.
Granted, the experts are against these things, but that is after all a
natural first reaction to these startling concepts.

I will go out on a limb and predict that within 10-12 years, our ideas
will have gained in popularity, and technology will have continued to
move incrementally forward, so that we will see a major, organized social
effort to push for one or more transhumanist goals, perhaps some of those
on Harvey's list.  People will want these things, and they will by then
be close enough that a concerted effort can bring them into our grasp.
It may be AI, nanotech, life extension, or some technology we didn't
quite anticipate.  But I think we will see some major new efforts
beginning in the decade of the 2010's.

Hal