[extropy-chat] Harv's Explanation for Slow Progress

[Brian Atkins]

Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> 
> How about this scenario:  I immediately pay a large sum to the
> singularitian.  The day after the predicted singularity date, they pay me
> back my money plus a large sum of their own.
> 
> Any takers?
> 

Not here, but perhaps I should paypal $1 to anyone who can properly 
spell the word "singularitarian" on a regular basis :-)

P.S. I recall Eliezer's original guess was for a high probability 
between 2008 and 2015, but he later revised it to "When it happens, it 
happens" after he read more about how often expert predictions fall 
outside of their 95% confidence area.
-- 
Brian Atkins
Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
http://www.singinst.org/