[extropy-chat] and the nano/holo fun goes on...

Emlyn emlynoregan at gmail.com
Mon Aug 16 02:39:23 UTC 2004

"I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers"
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home"
Ken Olson, chairman & founder of Digital equipment, 1977

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The device is ingerently of no value to
Western Union internal memo, 1876

"640 K ought to be enough for anybody."
Bill Gates, 1981

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
popular mechanics, 1949

(nicked from http://web.inter.nl.net/users/pwilkins/ITquotes.html)

Come on, let's not let our imaginations fail us now.

Pop quiz: What will the consumer computer environment look like when
we have $100 machines with 100GB of memory on board, 100TB of drive
space, and lets say 10mbit/s internet connections as average speed?

Actually, that's not as interesting as asking what it will mean when
everyone has wearables (PDAs+++) with the same capacity as our current
desktops, and, say, 300kbps wireless internet connections that work

(btw, I already have a consumer level device here, on my desk at work,
in Adelaide Australia, which has 300kbps wireless net connection, with
browser etc, that works every, connected to a 3G network. Yeah!)


http://emlynoregan.com   * blogs * music * software *

On Sat, 14 Aug 2004 23:55:15 -0400, Dan Clemmensen <dgc at cox.net> wrote:
> We joke about this, but the reality is different.
> At some point during the last ten years, most of us crossed a threshold.
> Prior to the threshold, We did not have enough disk space or processing
> power. We spent as much money on a computer as our comfort level
> allowed, and it was not enough. Now, for most of us we have enough. When
> is the last time you checked the percentage of usage of your disk? when
> is the last time you thought "gee this operation is taking too long."
> (not counting problems with viruses and malware.) Think back ten years.
> One of the big deals then was figuring out which disk compression
> software to use.
> Most broadband providers have a cap at 2GB/month. A 1TB disk will hold
> more than 2 years of downloads, at a current cost of about $1000. ($500
> for the disks and $500 for the computer to hold the disks.) A 100TB disk
> would hold 200 years of downloads at today's rates.
> Assuming no monthly cap, look at it another way. An individual can
> probably assimilate <1Mbps for < 8hours/day (average.) that's
> (1Mb/8)*3600*8, or 3.6GB/day. That's 1TB/mo, or 100TB in 8 years.
> Emlyn wrote:
> >Excellent! A couple of those might be able to hold a few weeks of my
> >mailing list and rss feed subscriptions.
> >
> >Emlyn
> >
> >On Sat, 14 Aug 2004 17:47:39 -0500, Damien Broderick
> ><thespike at satx.rr.com> wrote:
> >
> >
> >>Breakthrough Nanotechnology Will Bring 100 Terabyte 3.5-inch Digital Data
> >>Storage Disks
> >>
> >>http://www.physorg.com/news785.html
> >>
> >>
> >>

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