[extropy-chat] The emergence of AI

[ben]

Here's a thought:

 From The Architecture of Brain and Mind, by Aaron 
Sloman.(http://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/research/cogaff/gc/)

"In a world that day-by-day becomes increasingly dependent on technology 
to maintain its functional stability, there is a need for machines to 
incorporate correspondingly higher and higher levels of cognitive 
ability in their interactions with humans and the world. Understanding 
the principles of brain organisation and function which subserve human 
cognitive abilities, and expressing this in the form of an 
information-processing architecture of the brain and mind, will provide 
the foundations for a radical new generation of machines which act more 
and more like humans. Such machines would become potentially much 
simpler to interact with and to use, more powerful and less error-prone, 
making them more valuable life-companions, whether for learning, 
information finding, physical support or entertainment. They might even 
be able to recognize even the best disguised spam email messages as 
easily as humans do!"


The implication here is that AI will not suddenly appear on the scene at 
some indeterminate future time, but will gradually emerge, as more and 
more information-processing systems display more and more intelligence. 
AI will probably creep up on us gradually, rather than suddenly bursting 
forth from some lab.

This view makes a lot of sense. Consider toys. Not so long ago, most 
children's toys were carved from wood. Now we have very sophisticated 
robotic toys that are starting to respond to voice commands, and display 
a variety of different behaviours. Toys for adults are even more 
sophisticated. We have robotic animals, humanoid fighting robots, even 
robots that can mow the lawn or vacuum the floor. Nobody calls Aibo or 
Roomba full-blown AI, but if you compare them with a wooden rocking 
horse or a bristle broom, they are remarkably intelligent. This trend 
will only continue. One day, we will realise that our children's toys 
are just as bright as a pet dog or cat, and a lot of the information 
systems that we use will incorporate elements of the kind of cognitive 
processing that we currently regard as uniquely human. By the time 
robots and computer systems display what we call general intelligence, 
nobody will be surprised, because they will have gradually emerged from 
systems that everyone is used to. Things like agent software that seeks 
the best prices for aeroplane tickets, PDAs that learn your habits and 
preferences, collaborative embedded systems that track the movements of 
millions of items and people, and co-ordinate traffic flow systems, 
ordering of goods, etc. And toys. All getting smarter and smarter, month 
by month.

So it's possible that one day, it will be somebodys teddy bear that will 
be the thing waking up and saying to itself "Crikey, I'm Me!!", and not 
some purpose-designed massive computer.

What do you reckon. Will AI be the descendant of computer research 
programs in academic labs, or will their ancestors be dolls that blink 
and wet themselves, and lawnmowers?

ben