[extropy-chat] Re: Damien grants psi evidence

[Damien Broderick]

At 09:50 AM 12/17/2004 -0800, Mike Lorrey wrote:

<What it needs, though, rather than dismissal, is
for someone who is an avowed skeptic to replicate the exact same
experiments. That is what a real scientist would do.>

This is very sensible. From my reading, though, what happens is that when a 
skeptical scientist is astonished by a student's positive results and tries 
to replicate, and gets positive results, and sets up a big program, and 
gets more positive results, he has become a `believer' and is no longer 
trusted.

There might be more subtle problems. Psi, if it does indeed exist, looks 
(from the process end) more like the capacity to play the piano 
brilliantly, or run a mile in under 4 minutes. It isn't independent of 
humans, like electricity or the weather. (Well, *maybe* the weather.) Some 
clinical or hostile settings might well inhibit it, which will be regarded 
by knee-jerk skeptics as proof of its non-reality.

The Tale of Sighs, Kings and Viziers

Once there was a very up-to-date King, cold and severe by temperament and 
schooling, whose reign was marked by prudence, rationality and justice.

Emotion was quite unknown to this ruler. In his studies, he had specialized 
in astronomy, geometry, systems analysis and noblesse oblige. To his 
considerable chagrin, his loyal subjects fiercely resisted many of his 
sensible edicts. At last he sought advice from his Vizier.

`Unlike your Majesty,' this hapless fellow informed him, trembling, `many 
people are afflicted by, um, how might one put this--'

`Spit it out, man!'

`Uh, "sighing", your Grace.'

`What!'

`Your efficient programs clash with wishes produced by powerful emotions,' 
the Vizier blubbered.

`What nonsense!' cried the King in outrage. `They are governed, as am I, by 
the conditioned impulse to seek pleasure and avoid pain. My writ optimizes 
these opportunities, and promotes correct reinforcement. "Sighs"? Bah! Show 
me laboratory examples--and no cheating, if you value your hands.'

`Laboratory examples? I fear this is hardly possible,' the Vizier replied 
in great fear, for he knew the King rewarded unscientific hypotheses with 
aversive consequences.

The King rolled his eyes terribly, and brandished a thick report. `Look 
here, then, explain this. My splendid Personnel Relocation Plan seems to be 
taking forever to get started.'

`Oh, your Majesty, this is precisely what I mean. The major disruptive 
influence is what we term "falling in love", but unfortunately for your 
Planning Staff it occurs quite unpredictably.'

`Never heard of such a thing outside fairy-stories,' the King snapped. 
`Besides,' he added craftily, `if it's unpredictable, how can it be used as 
an explanation?' One thumb stropped the brightly glinting edge of his 
ceremonial sword.

`No, no, it is not altogether erratic, O Delight of Allah! Generally it is 
found among the young, though there are rumors that it can happen at any 
age. Bless me, in my own case, there's a beautiful young chantress...' At 
the King's frown, the Vizier coughed explosively. `Quite often it is found 
operating between members of the opposite sex, but is far from unknown in 
the alternative case.'

`Spare me your idle rumors. Laboratory studies, you wretch!'

`Jewel of the Day, it tends most regrettably to be inhibited by close 
observation, especially the presence of jeering witnesses.'

`Off with his head,' cried the King. But being a rational man not 
influenced by prejudice, he established a small Research Institute. Ten 
thousand of his subjects were brought together under controlled conditions. 
Strict tests were run, in which measuring instruments were attached to each 
randomly allotted pair. Bright lights were focused on their every move, and 
the entire proceedings were videotaped. Short-term and longitudinal studies 
provided no conclusive proof of any `falling in love'.

At the end of a decade's exhaustive work, the King was gratified to read 
the Institute's majority report, clinically affirming the non-existence of 
`sigh effects'. He was less pleased by a minority report that included 
unsubstantiated anecdotal cases and a statistical evaluation urging that 
the broad hypothetical category of `sentiment' deserved further research.

The terrified dissenter was fetched before the throne. `Sire,' he insisted, 
`we have found that "sighing" can occur if our bright lights are replaced 
by candles and sweet music. There's also a definite statistical indication 
that hostile witnesses should be replaced by sympathetic observers bearing 
honeyed potions.'

`Bah! Harrumph!' roared the King, waving graphs in the sweating air. `It 
says here that the "sentimental behavior" produced by these dubious 
conditions is not always "sighing" but sometimes "profound dislike".'

`True, I fear. States of this kind are not stable, and can reverse 
abruptly. We tentatively label the most frequently observed phase 
transitions of this sort "having a fight" and "making up". The difference 
between the two can be extraordinarily subtle.'

`Utter madness,' decided the King. `And what's this? "As time goes on, the 
early dramatic sigh effects deteriorate and often appear to vanish entirely"?'

`I know, Sire, it affronts one's reason. But you'll note in paragraph XXIV 
(b) - sighing sometimes revives if one of the subjects with diminished 
"sentimental attachment" is introduced to another suitable partner. It 
doesn't always work,' he admitted sadly.

`Disgusting nonsense,' the King decreed, slashing the minority report to 
shreds. `Your work is a grotesque example of shoddy thinking, poor 
controls, inadequate observation and unrepeatable experimentation. The 
Exchequer shall authorize no further funding for this lamentable farce. Off 
with his head!'

After that, the King's scientists wisely omitted from their reports any 
statistical anomalies due to the so-called `sigh' effect, and life went on 
in the Kingdom in a perfectly scientific way.

Damien Broderick