[extropy-chat] News from Extropy Institute

Thu Jul 15 15:10:39 UTC 2004

Extropy Institute Newsletter
Exponent
July 15, 2004

Greetings!

We are featuring four topics in this month's Exponent 
Newsletter.   

First is the new article by R.U. 
Sirius in NeoFiles on Max More.  "R.U. 
Sirius is co-founder of MONDO 2000, vocalist-
and-lead theoretician for MONDO.  R.U. co-authored 
two books with former MONDO 2000 Senior 
Editor St. Jude,  How to Mutate and Take Over 
the World (fiction, Ballantine Books, fall, 1995) 
and Cyberpunk Handbook: The Real Cyberpunk 
Fake Book (humor, Random House, fall, 1995)."

Also in this Exponent is the announcement of 
the new meeting hall for the Transhumanist 
Cooperative Colloquium, for better 
communication amongst transhumanist 
organizations.

Another point of interest is space architect John 
Spencer and his new book, Space Tourism: Do 
You Want To Go?  John has been an early 
advocate of transhuman ideas in Los Angeles since 
way back in the early 1980s.  He is also on ExI's 
Executive Advisory Team (EAT).

Lastly, and with a finger on a rapid pulse, is 
a reminder to register for the TransVision 2004 
Conference to be held in Toronto, Canada from 
August 6 - 8th.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In this issue:
* "Transhumanist Mainman" Max More in NeoFiles
* Transhumanist Cooperative Colloquium
* John Spencer - Space Architect - "Welcome Aboard" to Space!
* Register for TransVision 2004!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Article:  R.U. Sirius Talks 
with Max More

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Transhumanist Mainman" Max More in NeoFiles

Excerpt from the article:

NeoFiles: One thing both the precautionary and 
Proactionary principles have in common is that they 
are based largely on foresight and prediction. These 
are ultimately subjective thought processes, even 
when factually based, true? How do we develop 
forecasting to the highest level of possible accuracy? 

"Max More: Thank you, RU, for such a vital closing 
question. If we're going to avoid costly, even deadly, 
errors of judgment, and if we're to make the most of 
the future, we must improve our forecasting abilities. 
Human brains really stink when it comes to 
forecasting; they evolved to enhance survival under 
radically different, simpler circumstances. The 
challenge just keeps mounting as the social-
technological environment becomes more complex. 
Information technology, as we all know, is 
accelerating the transmission of ideas, practices, and 
responses. Various human biases and tendencies, 
such as our imitative behavior, is generating faster 
and faster cycles, greater instability, and higher 
levels of uncertainty (at least over short periods of 
time).

And further  -  

"Max More: Now, I'm not sure that forecasting and 
prediction are always or necessarily "ultimately 
subjective thought processes." Forecasting methods 
can be tested. Scott Armstrong has done amazing 
work in this area. The book he produced in 
collaboration with many others, The Principles of 
Forecasting should be in the library of neophiles of 
every stripe. As Armstrong and others have 
demonstrated, some forecasting methods are 
more reliable than others, or work better in particular 
kinds of situations. Scott especially likes role-playing, 
and has shown that it routinely beats out other 
methods such as expert opinions.

"Max More: We neophiles now have a large toolkit of 
forecasting and decision-making methods available to 
us. We need to be aware of the options, and learn 
how to choose the right tool for the job, then use 
that tool carefully. I've written quite a bit about this, 
most recently summarizing a major chunk of the 
challenge in "Debugging Executive Decision Making." 
Simply finding forecasting methods that reduce 
subjectivity in judgment is easy. There are plenty of 
them: Scenario planning, role playing, agent-based 
modeling, idea futures markets, prospective 
hindsight, Delphi Survey, peripheral sensing and 
scanning, reference-class forecasting, sensemaking 
software, even the emerging fields of euroeconomics 
and psychomarketing, or the tongue-twisting, Nobel 
Prize-winning tool of autoregressive conditional 
heteroskedasticity. Far more challenging is the task 
of choosing the most effective and fitting method."

Full Story (http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=oi5wn8n6.0.0.yb4rxun6.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.life-enhancement.com%2FNeoFiles%2Fdefault.asp%3FID%3D39)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Transhumanist Cooperative Colloquium

The TransColloquium is a meeting place for futurist 
organizations in our community to come together, 
calendar events, leverage our joint knowledge and 
capabilities, discuss issues, and exchange ideas 
concerning our shared transhumanist culture.  Since 
our community has grown over the years, it is time 
that we have a forum where no one organization 
dominates, and one which provides a fluid, shared 
space for our community.

The first meeting will be held in the online meeting 
room from August 22 through 24, 2004. 

Each meeting will be chaired by a different 
organization. That organization will set the agenda, 
accepting suggestions from the Colloquium 
community.

Colloquium Website - (http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=oi5wn8n6.0.0.yb4rxun6.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.transcolloquium.org)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
John Spencer - Space Architect - "Welcome Aboard" to Space!

Space Tourism: Do You Want To Go?
"The Space Tourism Quest is the first book published 
in the United States on the space tourism theme.  It 
was written and designed by one of the worlds  
leading authorities and pioneers in the growing field 
of space tourism, space architect, John Spencer.  
Founder and president of the Space Tourism Society, 
(STS) www.spacetourismsociety.org 

"In it he premieres his vision, the "Destiny" orbital 
super yacht design and master development industry 
plan for expanding the space tourism movement and 
creating the long-term space tourism industry. 

"His plan offers opportunities for non-rocket 
scientists to participate today, to make a difference, 
and to have a wonderful time in the process." 

- We asked John says he would like to participate as 
a space architect in an Extro Conference 
Designing the Future in 2005/2006. All go and 
thumbs-up to a positive and resounding, "Yes I 
would!"

John Spencer has been making a difference ever 
since he started his first space architecture firm in 
Hollywood in the late 1970s.  Keeping one foot in 
front of the other and practicing his space walk, he 
will pioneer what he calls "the design frontier."

John sees us (transhumans) in a highly positive 
light with "limitless opportunities to improve our 
species in a conscious and meaningful way."

In doing so, he says that we need to find 
the  "Simplest 
solutions and do that again and again until it all looks 
so obviously simple that everyone will say 'Anyone 
could design that, and they will 
never know what you went through, how much 
[God] 
went through before developing 
his hydrogen atoms and blades of grass and eggs.'" 
Buckminster Fuller, April 18, 1974

Full Story (http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=oi5wn8n6.0.0.yb4rxun6.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2Fexec%2Fobidos%2Ftg%2Fdetail%2F-%2F1894959086%2Fqid%3D1089829613%2Fsr%3D1-13%2Fref%3Dsr_1_13%2F002-0090227-5260007%3Fv%3Dglance%26s%3Dbooks)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Register for TransVision 2004!

The World Transhumanist Association
in cooperation with the McLuhan Program in Culture 
and Technology and Transhumanist Arts & Culture 
Presents
TransVision 2004
Art and Life in the Posthuman Era

August 5 to 8, 2004

University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Register Now!

- and see who will be there!

Full Story (http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=oi5wn8n6.0.0.yb4rxun6.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.transhumanism.org%2Ftv%2F2004%2Fpresenters.shtml)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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