[extropy-chat] Re: Nano-assembler feasibility - politics

[Hal Finney]

Chris writes:

> In a recent technology post I wrote: One of two events will happen. 
> Either we will built a mechanochemical fabricator, or we will discover a 
> significant error in the theory.
>
> Which event will happen?  The discovery of an error in the theory looks 
> pretty low-probability to me; Nanosystems has been out for over a 
> decade.  Obviously, you disagree.  How much are you willing to bet? 
> Would you take hundred-to-one odds that there's a problem in the theory? 
>   If so, I'll put up $1,000 to your $100,000.  What odds or stakes would 
> you be comfortable with?

I'm confused.  You say you see a low probability of an error in the
theory, but then you require 100 to 1 odds in your favor?  That means
that you're only willing to bet that there's a 1% chance that the theory
will work!  How is a 99% chance of error a low probabililty?

Or is this a typo, did you mean to let the other guy put up $1,000 and
you will pay $100,000 if the theory doesn't work?

If the latter, I'm sure you could get some takers, depending on the
time frame.

For reference, the FX idea futures game predicts around 2023-2025 for
the date of awarding the Feynman Grand Prize, which requires the
construction of a couple of small nanotech-type devices,
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=FyGP .

Hal