[extropy-chat] Re: monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Spike]

David

> 
> >spike said
> >
> >...Do suggest a fix if you know one in both cases.  I want to express
> >the notion that swapping is the intuitively correct
> >path, yet leads to paradox...
> >
> >spike
> >
> >  
> >
> The expected value of each envelope before opening one is 50% 
> of the total...

Agreed.

> After opening one you still don´t know what a zorg is worth 
> and you have no further information...

This part with which I am not sure I totally agree, for
we do have one further, and critically important piece
of information: that one of the envelopes contains twice
as much as the other.  With that information, it seems to
me that one need not know the absolute amount in one's own
envelope, but rather only to fix the amount somehow, such
as by opening it and peering at the number of zorgs.

> so the expected value of your envelope is still 50% of
> the total...

I agree with this as well.

>  This makes the other envelope worth either 2/3 or 4/3 of 
> your envelope. An even money bet.

Oy vey!  This must somehow be true but simultaneously seems 
to contradict the prior knowledge.  You know that the
other envelope contains *neither* 2/3 or 4/3 of yours,
but rather half or double!  We already know this!  If we
could somehow make ourselves *forget* that prior knowledge,
then I would agree that swapping or sticking is the same.
But it is unclear that it is worth a frontal lobotomy to
make the puzzle come out right.

> If you did this a few thousand times, regardless of whether 
> you swap or not you will end up averaging 15 zorgs per go.

I agree with this as well, in fact I may write a sim
to prove it, however the result seems paradoxical to me.  Its as
if the act of opening and peering into your envelope somehow
causes the amount in the other one to change.  The whole
question has caused me to look at the Schoedinger's cat
paradox in a whole new light. 

> ps. the rare purple gorf is far and away the tastiest.

Heretic!

{8^D

spike