[extropy-chat] Kerry to win, 2.5 to 1

[Eliezer Yudkowsky]

Robin Hanson wrote:
> Tradesports, IEM, Betfair give Kerry a 71 to 74% chance to win.

Today's experiment... failed.

It disturbs me that with millions of dollars to spend and all the 
sophisticated apparatus of statistics, we can't predict the outcome of an 
election.  It makes one wonder about the latest study showing that broccoli 
does (not) prevent cancer.  At least with elections, you find out when 
you're wrong.  I wonder how much marginal science is similarly bogus.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence