[extropy-chat] POLITICS: 537 Economists Criticize Bush and Kerry

Hal Finney hal at finney.org
Fri Oct 15 06:09:43 UTC 2004


Eliezer writes:
> Hal Finney wrote:
> > See <http://www.openlettertothepresident.org/> and
> > <http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment/release_bc04_economists.html>.
> On what matter of fact do these scientists disagree?  I 
> have reviewed both letters and they seem to target different follies by 
> both candidates; there is no incompatibility between these disasters.

How about this: from the first letter, "The data make clear that your
policy of slashing taxes - primarily for those at the upper reaches
of the income distribution - has not worked....  What is called for,
we believe, is a dramatic reorientation of fiscal policy, including
substantial reversals of your tax policy."

And from the second letter, "John Kerry has proposed tax increases that
threaten to sap the economy's vitality and reduce long-term growth.
Specifically, Kerry proposes to 'restore the top two [income]
tax rates to their levels under President Clinton'....  In fact, we
believe Kerry's proposals would, over time, inhibit capital formation,
depress productivity growth, and make the United States less competitive
internationally."

The first group recommends "substantial reversals" of Bush's tax policy.
But the second specifically criticizes Kerry's proposal to roll back
the tax situation to what it was before Bush took office.  That looks
pretty contradictory to me.

The conclusions of the two letters are not exactly opposite but pretty
discouraging when read in concert:

"Given the tenuous state of the American economy, we believe that the
time for an honest assessment of the problem and for genuine corrective
action is now. Ignoring the fiscal crisis that has taken hold during
your presidency may seem politically appealing in the short run, but we
fear it could ultimately prove disastrous. From a policy standpoint, the
clear message is that more of the same won't work. The warning signs
are already visible, and it is incumbent upon all of us to pay attention."

"All in all, John Kerry favors economic policies that, if implemented,
would lead to bigger and more intrusive government and a lower standard
of living for the American people."

So Bush's policies will lead to disaster, and Kerry's will lower the
American standard of living.  Is it possible that each candidate has
managed to craft an economic program that will be actively harmful?
Do you think most of the professional economists who signed these letters
would agree with the statements in the other one?  If so, maybe someone
did sign them both!  Well, I just spent a few minutes analyzing them
and there don't seem to be any common signatories.  Frankly I would be
pretty surprised if that happened.

Hal



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