[extropy-chat] IRAQ: Weapons pipeline to Syria

[Stephen Van_Sickle]

Fair enough.  Certainly a well credentialed bunch.

Forgive me, though, if I am a little skeptical of a
study based on surveys and statistical extrapolation. 
They may well be right, but I'm going to need a little
more before I believe it whole-heartedly.

I'm not sure the sarcasm was called for.  *I* never
called anyone commie Islamists, and certainly not the
Lancet.  Though perhaps it is the habit of people
using "scare quotes" to minimize or ridicule.  I just
was trying to make clear that I was using your own
word.  If I caused a misunderstanding I apologize.

steve


--- Damien Broderick <thespike at satx.rr.com> wrote:

> 
> >
> > > Meanwhile, authoritative estimates say 100,000
> > > Iraqis have been killed,
> > > more than half women and kids, mostly by
> coalition
> > > forces.
> >
> >Just who are these "authorities"?
> 
> It's from those communist Islamists, THE LANCET,
> reporting findings by the 
> bin Laden-funded Center for International Emergency
> Disaster and Refugee 
> Studies, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in
> Baltimore and New York's 
> Columbia University's School of Nursing:
> 
>
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/10/29/1099028208196.html?oneclick=true
> 
> 
> 100,000 Iraqi civilians dead, study finds
> 
> By Marian Wilkinson
> United States Correspondent
> Washington
> October 30, 2004
> 
> About 100,000 Iraqi civilians - half of them women
> and children - have died 
> in Iraq since the invasion, mostly as a result of
> air strikes by coalition 
> forces, according to the first reliable study of the
> death toll from Iraqi 
> and US public health experts.
> 
> The estimated death toll was extrapolated from a
> survey of nearly 1000 
> households in randomly selected locations throughout
> the country.
> 
> The study, published in the British medical journal,
> the Lancet, concludes 
> that: "Violence accounted for most of the excess
> deaths and air strikes 
> from coalition forces accounted for most of the
> violent deaths."
> 
> The research, led by Dr Les Roberts, was carried out
> by the Centre for 
> International Emergency Disaster and Refugee
> Studies, Johns Hopkins School 
> of Public Health in Baltimore and New York's
> Columbia University's School 
> of Nursing. It will be highly controversial as it
> dramatically increases 
> the estimated number of civilian deaths attributed
> to US-led coalition.
> 
> The findings are bound to be disputed by US military
> commanders as the 
> figures would mean 150 civilians have died each day
> since the conflict 
> began. Even non-government estimates by the widely
> used website 
> www.iraqbodycount.com, has put the figures of
> reported deaths at about 
> 16,000 since the invasion.
> 
> US and British military commanders have repeatedly
> refused to put a number 
> on Iraqi civilian casualties, but this study may
> force a change in that 
> official policy. The study's authors say the death
> toll would be even 
> higher if households in the insurgent stronghold of
> Fallujah were included.
> 
> Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in
> just one cluster of 
> households in Fallujah, but it was difficult for the
> researchers to 
> establish whether some of the victims were
> insurgents.
> 
> The study compared the death rates in Iraq for 14
> months before the 
> invasion with an 18-month period after it.
> 
> The information was based on interviews with members
> of selected Iraqi 
> households. Interviewers did ask to see death
> certificates, but it is 
> unclear whether the perpetrators of the deaths were
> able to be cross-checked.
> 
> The study concluded that the risk of death for
> Iraqis was two-and-a-half 
> times higher after coalition forces entered the
> country.
> 
> In a comment accompanying the study, Lancet editor
> Richard Horton called 
> for an immediate change in US and British military
> strategy.
> 
> While acknowledging the sample of households was
> relatively small and 
> researchers were hampered by security problems, Mr
> Horton said the central 
> finding was that civilian deaths had risen sharply
> since the war.
> 
> "Democratic imperialism has led to more deaths not
> fewer," Mr Horton said 
> in the editorial. "For the occupiers, winning the
> peace now demands a 
> thorough reappraisal of strategy and tactics to
> prevent further unnecessary 
> human casualties. For the sake of a country in
> crisis and for a people 
> under daily threat of violence, the evidence that we
> publish today must 
> change heads as well as pierce hearts."
> 
> The research will raise concerns in Washington and
> in the interim Iraqi 
> Government of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi.
> 
> Both are preparing for a major military assault on
> insurgents in Fallujah, 
> which is planned to be unleashed soon after the US
> presidential election.
> 
> The assault is expected to result in widespread
> civilian casualties. Sunni 
> political leaders have threatened to boycott all
> political dialogue with Mr 
> Allawi's Government if the attacks go ahead.
> 
> 
> 
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