Why bet only imaginary money? (was Re: [extropy-chat] SETI: First radio signal from alien)

[Brett Paatsch]

Spike wrote:                


> In response to an offlist post from a well known extropian, I wrote:
> 
> OK lets do it this way: lets wager using imaginary virtual
> dollars, sorta like Robin Hansen's IFX ideas futures (except
> they use actual virtual dollars.)  

Why only imaginary dollars and monopoly money?

Robin's futures market seemed to me to be a good idea. Except
that the money wasn't real. The lack of that essential detail made
it virtually useless to me. Like playing monopoly with a bunch of
opinionated children that lose nothing if they are wrong so they
go straight back to making ridiculous claims. 

I'd be happy to bet *against* certain propositions that are often
championed on the Exi list, not because I have a curmudgeonly
personality (although at times I might :-) but because it makes
fuzzy wishy washy talkers get a lot more precise and specific
(and thereby potentially more interesting and effective if they
happen to be right) in order to operationalise the bet.

This does not mean that I have money to burn, quite to the 
contrary it means that I am willing to trade money for time. I
am willing to back my judgement and my understanding of what
is and is not possible in some cases against people who claim 
or pretend to be experts.  

I can't do it effectively at this stage because there is no *real* 
futures market.  Or is there? Does anyone know of one?

Brett Paatsch