[extropy-chat] Hurricanes and global warming

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Hal Finney <hal at finney.org> wrote:

> With all of the hurricanes striking the United States this year,
> a question many people are asking is whether the increase is due to
> global warming.  Of course this is a controversial issue but still it
> is useful to see what is the scientific consensus on the matter.

Such claims are one more proof that the chicken littles are cherry
picking the data. The facts are clear: the first half of the 20th
century saw TWICE as many class IV and V hurricanes as the second half
of the 20th, yet the chicken littles claim that most of the warming
happened in the 2nd half of the century. If warming were the cause,
then the late 20th should have had more severe hurricanes than the
early 20th.

There is a significant relationship between sunspot cycle intensity and
incidence of severe hurricanes. The second half of the 20th century saw
sunspot cycles peaking at a minimum of 120 to as many as 200, while the
cycles prior to that period, going back to the 18th century, rarely
exceeded 100. The latest cycle, which began in 1996 and which we are on
the tail end of now (we will reach minimum in 2006) has only peaked at
120. The one exception in the 2nd half of the 20th was the 1966-76
period which peaked at 110 and as I recall, people were talking about
the next ice age at that point.

Why does this all matter, you ask? 
Where is that flux going disproportionately, due to holes in the
radiation belts at the poles? At the poles. The poles warm up more when
the sun gets hotter, the equator doesn't warm up at all or much at all,
so the thermal differential between the equator and the poles drops,
and so the lesser energy differential means less severe storms.

So, what is the proper conclusion? If we are truly entering a period of
more severe storms, then it can only be because the poles are entering
a cooling period due to lower solar output. If we are entering a true
Maunder Minimum, expect to see the next sunspot cycle, due to peak in
2010, to reach a VERY low peak of between 70-100. Winters will get more
severe, and we'll see more snowy blizzards at lower latitudes in the
states. The Gulf Stream will speed up again, and Northern Europe will
get socked in with a nicely temperate fog like it once was.

Better put another log on the fire...

=====
Mike Lorrey
Chairman, Free Town Land Development
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                         -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
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=====
Mike Lorrey
Chairman, Free Town Land Development
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                         -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
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