[extropy-chat] The Long Now: Bets and Predictions Over Time

[Brent Neal]

 (9/23/04 17:16) "Hal Finney" <hal at finney.org> wrote:

>There are also increasing methodological problems with telephone polling.
>For example, pollsters can't or don't call cell phones.  I think it
>might be against the law.  That's a potentially enormous source of bias.
>Plus with all the telemarketing in recent years it's getting harder
>to reach people at home.  I read recently that land line use has been
>dropping precipitously.  My guess is that we are heading towards another
>"Dewey Defeats Truman" polling debacle in the next few election cycles.


I would tend to agree. I had this discussion with a co-worker a few days ago, in fact.  There is a large portion of the population that has no land-line phone, or that never answers their land-line except when CallerID says its safe.  Pollsters aren't getting these people, who seem to be younger and more progressive. While this won't affect the rural states' poll numbers, the more urban states in the battleground, especially those with a young, educated workforce (Arizona, Wisconsin, &c.) could be seriously skewed.


B
-- 
Brent Neal
Geek of all Trades
http://brentn.freeshell.org

"Specialization is for insects" -- Robert A. Heinlein