[extropy-chat] Taiwan

Dirk Bruere dirk at neopax.com
Fri Apr 1 02:18:08 UTC 2005

Dan Clemmensen wrote:

> The environment in which an SI can "spontaneously" emerge is becoming
> richer at an exponentially increasing rate. Nine years ago I said that 
> my gut feeling
> was that the SI would emerge within ten years. With only 14 months to 
> go, this is
> looking like a bad call on my part, but I will not retract the 
> prediction, because the
> infrastructure is increasingly rich. My gut feeling is that we are now 
> only one clever insight
> away from the SI, and that the amount of cleverness that is needed 
> decreases as the
> infrastructure becomes richer.
I made a similar prediction around 1980.
The earliest I assumed was 2010 and the latest 2050 with 2030 being the 
most probable.
Still on course IMO for 2030.


The Consensus:-
The political party for the new millenium

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