[extropy-chat] Debate on Peak Oil

[Samantha Atkins]

On Apr 24, 2005, at 9:37 PM, Mike Lorrey wrote:

> Peak Oil exists for certain nations and certain oil companies, based on
> who has the rights to certain oil fields and which fields are being
> allowed to be developed by governments. The world is nowhere near any
> sort of impending oil shortage. We have a minimum of 100 years of oil
> available at todays market prices.

Produce your evidence or withdraw this claim.

>
> The Canadian oil tar sands contain more oil (over 3,000 billion
> barrels), as do Venezuelan tar sands, that the idea that we are running
> out of oil is simply ludicrous.

Except for the unfortunate fact that we have no means to economically 
(today's prices) and environmentally sanely extract and refine such 
oil.

> Technologies for affordably extracting
> oil from these sands is now perfected and is being implemented.

It is far from "perfected".

> In the
> shorter term, China, the Phillipines, Vietnam, and Indonesia are
> sitting on 19 billion barrels under the Spratlys, while the US has an
> equivalent amount sitting under ANWR, plus additional reserves
> elsewhere. The oil and gas fields of Wyoming, I am hearing are seeing a
> boom-time.

US oil production peaked in the 70s (as predicted by Hubbert).  Do you 
think we are dependent on Mideast oil just to amuse ourselves with the 
attendant complications and costs when we actually have everything we 
need right here?  ANWR is not that impressive to the actual oil 
companies.    To put this in perspective, the world sucks down 77 mbd, 
call it 100 mbd in round numbers (we expect to reach this level easily 
with the next 5 - 10 years).  The 19 billion barrels satisfies world 
demand for less than a year.  Not very impressive.  Also we are lucky 
to get as much as 70% of the oil out of the ground.

Drifting  (or even paddling hard) down that river in Egypt will not 
serve our interests.

- samantha