[extropy-chat] Real estate as an extropian investment

[Dan Clemmensen]

Dirk Bruere wrote:

>On 8/16/05, Acy James Stapp <astapp at amazeent.com> wrote:
>  
>
>>I'd like to offer my opinion on real estate. Assuming a
>>post-scarcity economy, real property becomes one of the
>>only finite resources, and will become highly desired as
>>an extravagent luxury good.
>>
>>If fusion does not become rapidly affordable the insolation
>>of a particular parcel of land becomes a valuable resource
>>for solar power; if you want to bet against fusion buying
>>land in the American west, Australian outback, or other sunny
>>desert areas could be quite profitable. And if fusion does
>>become affordable, you can farm it with desalinated water.
>>    
>>
> 
>Well, fusion is at least three decades away, and that's being optimistic.
>The notion that in three decades it will be cheaper than PV is
>insanely optimistic. I wouldn't bet on it being cheaper than solar in
>less than six decades.
>
>  
>
Fusion developed by humans, extrapolating from current magnetic or laser 
systems, may in fact be six decades from feasibility. Fusion developed 
by SI is a different story. Either we have nanotech, or not. If 
nanotech, then SI, and if SI, then nanotech. If SI, then fusion, 
probably based on nanotech. Therefore, your extrapolation of fusion to 
2065 implies that you think the singularity will not have occurred by then.

True nanotech implies design to atomic precision. In my opinion, 
accelerator-based fusion can easily reach break-even if the accelerator 
is atomically precise.

Depending on the ethics of the SI, real estate may still be the best 
investment, due as you say to insolation. An SI may prefer to optimize 
energy use (prefer to not waste energy) for ethical reasons. However, 
you can capture a lot more solar energy in space than on the earth's 
surface, so the best use of your real estate is to boost it into space. 
Take your hectare of land, excavate it to the legal ownership depth, and 
boost it into a solar orbit. Spread it as a nanotech membrane of (say) 
100 micrometer thickness. I the legal ownership depth is 100Km, you 
expand your real estate's solar cross-section by a factor of 10^^12. For 
the sake of argument, let's assume we convert a portion of the mass to 
energy to boost the mass onto a solar orbit.

Of course, the membrane will produce more power if the orbital radius is 
reduced.

We can also use some of the mass to build sun divers that can grab mass 
from the solar "surface" and bring it back to a feasible distance from 
the sun.

Of course, if an Si is "evolving" rapidly, even this is wasteful. Better 
to tame and direct the solar furnace rather than merely waiting for the 
photons to reach the collector.