[extropy-chat] FWD [U-Tapao] Re: IS IT TIME TO RATION FUEL?

[Samantha Atkins]

On Aug 21, 2005, at 9:55 PM, Terry W. Colvin wrote:

> Forwarding from another list...
>
> Terry
>
>
> I agree spomething has to be done.  What was a robust economy will  
> soon be in recession or at least diminished growth.  I'm not as  
> bent out of shape over the oil companies as they don't set the  
> price of oil, they simply drill and refine. I think the commodity  
> traders are out of control at the moment.  They drive up the price  
> of oil for almost any reason and NONE of them ever happen. So, here  
> are my thoughts grounded in the simple fact that for the short  
> term, WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO USE OIL.
>

We had a stock bubble, especially in tech, driven by "irrational  
exuberance", something for near nothing thinking, and mass fear of  
Y2K.  In the midst of that we were already shedding manufacturing  
jobs in the US and turning from a production to a consumption  
economy.  Post Y2K the bubble burst.  9/11 added more economic  
pressure.   The Fed kept the money and credit pumping.  It had to go  
somewhere.  Instead of going into productive activity it mostly went  
into high consumption at all levels and to the rapid expansion of the  
housing bubble.  The housing bubble gave homeowners another way to  
gain more money in the "jobless recovery" and consume and pile up  
debt even faster.  Nothing in this is or many other characteristics  
of the world's largest economy is what I would call "robust".  The  
quesiton is when will the various props and tools of denial fail and  
how catastrophically.  More importantly what can be done to cure the  
many ills and how quickly.

> 1) Conservation - I too would like to see a sizable reduction in  
> consumption.  I would offer huge tax incentives for fuel efficient  
> vehicles. Deduct 10% of the vehicle cost for each 1 mpg over 20 the  
> car gets.  This would not hurt Detroit because they now produce  
> many vehicles that get milage in this range. And many people who  
> own large SUVs and pickups would migrate to more fuel effcient  
> cars.  Those who love large vehicle would pay extra as they do not  
> get the tax write-
> off.  (this doe interfere with my flat tax idea but I can only save  
> the world one step at a time ;^))

Continuing to drive fuel inefficient vehicles does add a small burden  
that accumulates over all such drivers into something that may not be  
negligible.

>
> 2) Drill dammit just drill - there is oil out there and can be  
> processed with today's technology.  Be environmentally friendly but  
> drill - for the short term we must have oil. I don't know how many  
> studies Congress needs but drill for the oil.  If a few bugs,  
> bears, snakes or moose are unhappy so be it.

This misses the point that the oil companies don't have a lot of   
large oil bearing targets that they believe are viable to drill.

> 3) Standardize the fuel grades - for heavens sake how many  
> different fuel formulas do we need in this country? There are far  
> too many - have a winter and summer national standard and let the  
> refineries optimize for these formulas and reduce the cost of  
> processing.

It would have to be rather high grade unless you are going to wreck a  
lot of engines.  Why should those with cars taking the lower grades  
pay the higher price?  The problem as I understand it is not the  
grades of gas as much as the different types of plants required to  
process the different grades of crude that come out of the ground.   
Most of our existing refineries are geared only for the relatively  
easy to process light sweet crude.

>
> 4) More refineries - none in 30 or so years? Why? EPA regulations?

Nope.  Cost versus supply of crude and expected ROI.  Refineries take  
years to come online BTW.  So do oil wells.

>
> 5) Nuke em - hell electricity in France comes from nuke power why  
> not us?
>

I couldn't agree more.  It is high time we got over our irrational  
level of fear of nuclear power.

> 6) Start the future now. - Start a program similar to NASA to  
> define and build the infrastructure for the next generation of  
> fuels - hydrogen or whatever.  Set a goal to use 50% less oil by 2030.

2030? Too little too late.

- samantha