[extropy-chat] Impeachment of President Bush What odds am I offered?

[David Lubkin]

I wrote:

>I haven't done the research to give my opinion on the merits of 
>DOJ's arguments, but they appear on par with what one sees in 
>Supreme Court pleadings. In other words, there may be convincing 
>counter-arguments, but they will have to be rigorously reasoned and 
>grounded in case law.
>         :
>I suspect, as Spike said, that the courts will uphold the legality 
>of the NSA intercepts. Whether they are legal, of course, is 
>distinct from the questions of whether they are wise or whether I 
>approve of them.

After reading analyses of this situation, for which

On the Legality of the NSA Electronic Intercept Program
http://powerlineblog.com/archives/012631.php

is a good introduction, and then reading some of the pertinent 
decisions, particularly the recent

Hamdi v. Rumsfeld, 542 U.S. 507 (2004)
http://supct.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/03-6696.ZS.html

and

In re: Sealed Case No. 02-001 (2002)
http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/doj/fisa/fiscr111802.html

I'm now convinced not only that any lawsuit in opposition to the 
intercepts will fail, but that if it was accepted for Supreme Court 
review, the decision would not be close. I don't expect any less than 
a 7-2 decision, and wouldn't be at all surprised by a 9-0 "message". 
But I'm torn on whether it would get that far; it seems equally 
likely that the Court would simply deny cert.


-- David Lubkin.