[extropy-chat] Drake Equation nitpicking

John K Clark jonkc at att.net
Tue Feb 15 17:10:59 UTC 2005


Michael Crichton had some interesting things to say about the Drake
Equation:

"This serious-looking equation gave SETI an serious footing as a legitimate
intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can
be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the
equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses-just so we're clear-are
merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you
need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is
simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice."

"As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from "billions and
billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing.
Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has
nothing to do with science."





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