[extropy-chat] Air / Car Accident rates

[BillK]

On Thu, 20 Jan 2005 13:08:05 -0600, Kevin Freels wrote:
> Does this make them more or less likely to have a crash by the end of the
> year?
> 

I would say less likely. 

If plane crashes are caused by random events, then the longer an
airline goes without a crash, then the more likely it is to become a
target of a random event.

BUT, the great majority of plane crashes are not caused by random
events. Pilot error and other human error accounts for 60%, with
mechanical failure for another 20%. Good company practice and training
should avoid these factors. Weather accounts for 11%. A safe company
would avoid flying in dangerous weather conditions. Sabotage was 8%
and 'other' was 1%. Unless SWA does something to cause sabotage, they
should be safe from this also.

So I would recommend Spike to continue flying SWA and any other
airline with a clean record.

BillK