[extropy-chat] destroying gardens?

[Keith Henson]

At 07:38 AM 03/07/05 -0700, Mike Lorrey wrote:

 > keith wrote:
snip

>Europe had no less than 24 wars in the 19th century, and european
>nations were involved in at least 11 other wars with nations outside
>europe in the same period. Europe had 43 wars in the 18th century, plus
>another five with nations outside europe. In the 17th century, europe
>had 72 wars, plus at least another 12 with nations overseas.

And what has changed is the low population growth in the last 60 years.

>Now that the european constitution has been rejected, and Russia
>continues to fight the Chechnyans, and muslims continue to invade from
>Africa, I predict a major religious war in europe within 5-10 years as
>fundamentalist muslims attempt to violently impose sharia on the
>secular european populations.

I grant you that without some breakthrough like nanotech this is 
likely.  It is fueled by the high population growth in Africa and 
transportation that allows the excess population to travel.

> > >and lack of individual liberty. Having enough space for
> > >everyone to be truly free on their own land, free of force and
> > >manipulation by outside groups, is a key requirement for peace and
> > >justice.
> >
> > Something that is just not going to happen if the population is
> > rising faster than the resources to support that population.
>
>Which isn't happening except in places where there is artificially
>created shortages (through sabotage, protectionism, or taxation).

The problems are not entirely social.  There *are* physical problems like 
wrecking the farmland that have destroyed civilizations in the past.  Read 
Diamond's Collapse in this light.

> > >When enough people feel they are oppressed, either by their
> > >own government, or by a foreign government or population, they will
> > >rise up to make their demands heard.
> >
> > I think the *mechanism* behind wars and related social disruptions is
> > the circulation of xenophobic memes.
>
>That is a symptom. Xenophobic memes become popular only when the
>population is already under stress for other reasons.

I look at xenophobic memes as in the causal chain.  Stress -> build up of 
memes that support war -> war.  It makes sense as part of a behavioral 
switch that evolved in hunter gatherer stage humans who periodically over 
stressed their environment.  Wars periodically cut back the population.

>China, for example, with its one-child policy, now has a generation
>that is heavily dominated by a high percentage of males. The effect of
>this on chinese society will create stresses that are similar to the
>artificially created wife shortage in the muslim world that is created
>by the tribal control of resources and the quranic allowance of four
>wives for those who can afford them. In both cases, the 'cause' is
>being blamed, by those who have the wives, on the United States as the
>boogeyman, in order to deflect the rage of unmarried males upon us
>rather than those with the wives, or their own governments.

Time will test this idea.  My theory is that a good economic outlook is 
more important in holding down the buildup of war memes than the excess of 
young males.

So I would predict that as long as they have a reasonably rosy economic 
prospects, China will not start wars.

Where wars and related social disruptions such as terrorism will be a big 
problem in the Islamic world in direct relation to how bleak their economic 
prospects are.

Keith Henson