[extropy-chat] IQ vs Uploads

Dan Clemmensen dgc at cox.net
Mon Jun 13 22:34:37 UTC 2005


Robin Hanson wrote:

> At 02:16 AM 6/13/2005, Avantguardian wrote:
>
>> ....Since Moore's law is
>> exponential then it might come down to a race between
>> the Flynn effect vs. Moore's Law to see who/what will
>> dominate in years ahead: A.I. or the minds that CREATE
>> them.
>
>
> We don't know what processing/memory increase corresponds
> to a given number of IQ points increase.  But it is hard
> to believe that a factor of two every two years in CPU/mem
> doesn't beat a standard deviation per generation of IQ.

There is a fairly direct contribution of smarter designers to
Moore's law. I suspect that the contribution of Moore's Law to smarter
designers has a much longer time constant.

Additionally, the "race" will be "lost" when a very smart human
eventually builds any sort of computer-based intelligence amplifier.
The only way  meat-based humanity can "win" is if all highly-intelligent
humans agree to suppress computer-based intelligence. To make this work
the threshold intelligence for making this decision must be below the
threshold intelligence required to invent the SI. However, the threshold 
intelligence
to invent the SI declines as the technological substrate becomes richer.

Let's arbitrarily say that at only 1 per 100 million humans are smart enough
to invent the SI given today's tech they have not because none of the four
of them in the US or their peers in other countries are interested in 
computers.)
Ten years hence, advances in technology and knowledge will allow one in
5 million to be smart enough. Twenty years Hence, one in 50 thousand,

Clearly the only way the superhumans can "win" is to suppress the technology
before it is powerful enough for merely smart humans to use as a substrate.
But that is likely to be extremely difficult and also very dangerous, as 
Moore's
law is not the only exponential function we are dealing with.




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