[extropy-chat] Timescale to Singularity

[Heartland]

> >Without running and fully funding a goal oriented PAC with a set
>>legislative agenda and election funds, we are going to get played at
>>every corner by the luddites.
>>
>>Mike Lorrey

Marc wrote:
> Correction...*you* are going to get played at every corner by the
> luddites.  I live in NZ.  There are no religious fundamentalists and
> federal agents in the middle of the Australian outback.
>
> Hee hee

Marc, you're blowing your cover by mentioning that outback again. If you
pose enough of a threat to feds, they may send an army of Steve Irwin clones 
to get you. :)

As far as timescale to Singularity goes, real AI, in theory, could happen
within years, but let's face it, when we subtract hope and hype from the
current AGI projects, we unfortunately must face the brutal fact that we
still have absolutely no tangible evidence (like a working prototype) to
believe that any of these projects are going to be successful. As aspiring
rationalist, in absence of any evidence that a particular theory of
intelligence works, I am justified in treating these projects as elaborate
hoaxes or exercises in egomania. And until one of these AI-from-scratch
projects presents compelling evidence that real AI is within reach, the only
type of an AI project that I'm going to treat seriously is one that aims to
reverse engineer human brain such as recently announced IBM project.

Slawek