[extropy-chat] Futures Past
eugen at leitl.org
Mon Oct 10 09:27:21 UTC 2005
On Sun, Oct 09, 2005 at 09:59:06PM -0700, J. Andrew Rogers wrote:
> The Singularity as most people conceive of it essentially requires a hard
> take-off(*) of some type in an environment that is not qualitatively
Yes. Straight from horse's mouth: http://eugen.leitl.org/vinge-hard-takeoff.mov
> different than what we have now in many respects. It is the old fallacy of
It is not qualitatively different in the respect that people are prime
moves and shakers. Singularity suddenly changes this. It is directly driven
by machines, not people. People are dragged along, left behind, or go
> looking at a technology in isolation and forgetting that every other
> technology in society will co-evolve with it. At what point does the
> Singularity occur from the perspective of individuals if they are an
> integral part of the system? In many scenarios it would be as fluid a
The point is that a group of individuals goes into a fast-forward
regime the rest of them are unable to follow, being human primates
with little or no modifications.
> transition as the 20th century was. Sure, to a 2005 human it would appear
> abrupt, but at any point in the curve you will have something of human
> derivation that has fluidly evolved with the technology and is integrated
> with it. Hell, many of us probably cannot imagine a world without the
> modern Internet but I would assume that most of us have lived with that
> reality at some point.
> I can easily envision a scenario that a 2005 transhuman would call "a
> Singularity" that a 2025 transhuman would call "technological progress".
> But in 2025, you probably won't have a 2005 transhuman to ask.
> (*)One could define "hard take-off" as a scenario where widespread
> technological co-evolution does not occur. In practice it always has, but
> there is a popular argument that AGI is qualitatively different as a
> technology vector.
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a>
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
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