[extropy-chat] three coins in a fountain
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
sentience at pobox.com
Fri Oct 21 19:27:43 UTC 2005
Brandon Reinhart wrote:
>>What is the probability that the other side is a tail?
> This sounds like a problem for Bayes Theorem.
> The likelihood that the coin drawn has a tail on the other side is 50%. In
> fact, the information we are given (that we see a head) doesn't help us at
> all. It is completely irrelevant information (as far as probability is
Sorry, no. If a double-headed coin is drawn, it is twice as likely to
make us see a head as an ordinary coin. That affects the prior odds.
You may want to read this:
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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