[extropy-chat] three coins in a fountain, part 3: the test

spike spike66 at comcast.net
Fri Oct 21 22:40:26 UTC 2005

Jim wrote:

> I generally like to read these threads, not interject. However, I couldn't
> hold back... Once taken to 10,000 trials with the three
> coins. Their outcome was 33%.
> I like it here.  Jim

I like it here too, welcome Jim.

I could have stated the scenario without the
probabilities that trip some here.  It could
be stated a betting game: suppose you are a
casino guy.  What payoff could you offer that
the other coin face is a tail?  You could
offer a 3 to 1 payoff and still break even.  You
would get a lot of customers, since a lot of
people believe the breakeven payoff is 2 to 1.  So
offer 2.5 to 1 and make a lotta money in the 
long run.  You know that it is our sacred duty
as capitalists to make a ton of money. 

But I am surprised I am getting so many comments
on the probability game and so few on the second
part, which is actually the interesting idea: make
a multiple-choice test where you assign a confidence
level to each choice, then derive your score as the
product of the confidence level on each correct 
answer.  You could have a short ten-question
multiple choice test, give it to 1000 people
and most would get a different score.  Isn't
that cool?

Let's try it.  Post me your favorite IQ test
question, along with the answer in a multiple
choice format.  I'll put together a test, post
it here, let people work it as described in the
three-coins-part-2 thread, then see how well it
works in separating the geniuses from the rest
of us.  I need questions that cannot be easily 

Here's another interesting twist: the test answers
*might* be wrong.  The proles could send me a
wrong answer, and if I don't catch it, well... too
bad.  So be careful about assigning a zero probability
to anything, for if it is the one I had decided is
the right answer, the monkey will beat you, since he
will score 1E-6 by random guessing.  You are assigning 
a confidence level in the test answers that I, as 
head grand poobah head prole, decide is the right 
one.  There is no appeal process, sorry.  Remember 
this is just a game, an experiment.  

If I receive ten good IQ-test questions, I will post the
test here and calculate the scores of those who
submit their answers.  Post test questions offline to 
spike66 at comcast.net.


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