[extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory standpoint ?

The Avantguardian avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com
Sat Sep 3 14:04:45 UTC 2005



--- Rik van Riel <riel at surriel.com> wrote:

> On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Hal Finney wrote:
> 
> > If you were an insider and knew that oil was going
> to be worth that much
> > in a few years, why would you be pumping for all
> you were worth and
> > selling it today for $70/barrel?  That doesn't
> make sense.
> 
> If you were a 60 year old CEO, would you try to
> maximise
> profits today and keep shareholders happy, or would
> you
> gamble that prices will be higher 15 years in the
> future
> and hope you can string the shareholders along for
> that
> time ?

Precisely. From your 60 yr old CEO's point of view, it
would be most advantageous to keep your investors
thinking that the oil was plentiful and that
everything was going smoothly. Even if you were in
reality pumping the dregs of your wells. After all, if
you are waiting to see if you die before you go out of
business, you might as well make every buck you can
while you can.

 

The Avantguardian 
is 
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu

"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us." 
-Bill Watterson

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