[extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory standpoint ?

[Samantha Atkins]

The market is too irrational and likely highly manipulated in my  
opinion to risk much capital in it at this time.  Also I do not have  
the requisite knowledge to responsibly engage in oil futures trading  
nor the time required to obtain it.  That I am not so investing  
doesn't say anything at all about my position on the question except  
that I am unable to take advantage of it in this matter.   However. I  
have gained 20% in the last few months simply by following my  
prediction that any dip in certain oil stocks will be more than  
regained in short order.  Nothing spectacular or very sophisticated,  
just following the bouncing ball.

- samantha

On Sep 7, 2005, at 8:50 AM, Robin Hanson wrote:

> At 06:21 AM 9/7/2005, Samantha Atkins wrote:
>
>>> If Peak Oil were widely seen as a likely scenario in that time  
>>> frame,
>>> we would see increasing oil prices out in the 2008 to 2011 time  
>>> frame.
>>> For technical reasons, these markets tend not to have large price
>>> differentials across the delivery years (basically because it is
>>> easy to move oil deliveries backwards and forwards in time), so
>>> we would expect high future prices to drag up present-day  
>>> prices.  ...
>>> But this is not what we see.  While oil prices have risen steadily
>>> for the past few years, they have not been led up by future prices.
>>>
>>
>> I am not sure that analysis is valid although I don't see an
>> immediate flaw.  But I do not find it a convincing arugmunt that Peak
>> Oil is not at hand.  Look back in time to how unanmiously rosy most
>> of the market was right up to and even int the dot com bust.  The
>> Street can be fooled or its truthfulness seriously compromised.
>> There is also evidence that many parts of the Market are grossly
>> manipulated.  See the Sprott report for some of this evidence at
>> http://www.sprott.com/pdf/pressrelease/TheVisibleHand.pdf
>>
>
> So why are you not speculating in these markets to make all the money
> you think is there to be taken.  Or are you also one of those fools?
>
>
> Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
> Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
> MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
> 703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323
>
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