[extropy-chat] The Dramatic Future Is Always 20-30 Years Away

[Robin Hanson]

I've heard many times how dramatic forecasts for the future tend to 
be about 20-30 years away.  That is, fusion break-even, space 
colonies, and household robots were consistently  said to be that far 
into the future, forecasts that remained about that far into even 
20-30 years after the first such forecasts were made.  I just today 
heard that for many7 decades economists like Samuelson forecasted 
that the Soviet Economy would overtake the US economy in about 20-30 years.

Anyone know of citations mentioning this observation?  Early or 
canonical citations are of course preferred.





Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323