[extropy-chat] On difficult choices (was: Books: Harris; Religion and Reason)
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Sat Jan 14 23:18:56 UTC 2006
On 1/14/06, Russell Wallace <russell.wallace at gmail.com> wrote:
> On 1/14/06, Samantha Atkins <sjatkins at mac.com> wrote:
> > On Jan 14, 2006, at 11:11 AM, Russell Wallace wrote:
> > Out of curiosity, how close to the Singularity do you think we are?
> > About one generation away if we don't do something stupid.
> I hope you're right! I think it's likely to take longer, even in the best
> case scenario; but if the Singularity does arrive in one generation, feel
> free to say "see, Russell, you were being unnecessarily grouchy and
> pessimistic" and I'll agree that this was indeed so :) Operationally, I'll
> keep trying to figure out how to prove myself wrong.
### My 95% confidence interval for the SAI-driven Singularity is 2015
to 2050, squarely within our generation's lifetimes.
But I am not as pessimistic as Samantha about the US economy. Read
Arnold Kling - the fact is, the US is doing better than ever, even
despite the horrid stupidities that bedevil the system.
Samantha, about five years ago we discussed on ExI the same question -
you finished your last post in the thread by wondering whether maybe
the American society might be able to invent its way out of the
financial ruin brought about by government spending. Now I feel more
confident than ever that it will happen. The dramatic improvements in
labor productivity produced by American capitalism will produce so
much wealth that even American politicians won't be able to destroy it
all (you can find the relevant analyses on TCS and on Econlog).
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