[extropy-chat] no death

Hal Finney hal at finney.org
Wed Jan 18 23:31:38 UTC 2006

There is a claim:


> Claim Immo - Immortality by 2050
> bid 24, ask 26, last 25
> The Claim
> The death rate (per hundred thousand persons) will drop by 90%, relative
> to 1994, in any year through 2050. The measurement population is people
> in the United States, who are at least one year old. Persons in suspended
> animation (or cryonic suspension, reduced metabolism, etc.), if they
> are expected to remain suspended for a month or more, count as dead
> while suspended; they are omitted from the calculation after the year of
> "death".

So this asks for at least near-immortality by 2050.  It is trading at
about 25% odds.  However FX is somewhat notorious for overestimating
the likelihood of long-term low-probability claims.


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