[extropy-chat] My Dilemma

[Robert Bradbury]

On 7/5/06, A B <austriaaugust at yahoo.com> wrote:

>  If the Singularity goes very badly, and humanity is wiped out, then how
> will the foreknowledge of the Singularity have benefited my friends?
>

First, it might be good to recognize that humanity is *continually* being
"wiped out".  There is  no human alive today that was alive ~120 years ago
[1].  Given the amount that is known  about the possibilities for possible
bad scenarios I would predict people would probably work to prevent them.
Is that completely possible?  Probably not.  But there is a relatively high
probability that worst case scenarios will not develop.  Are we on a course
for the best case scenarios (there are multiple variants).  Absolutely not.
For example I can make a very good case that the war in Iraq will in
retrospect end up having cost millions, perhaps tens of millions of lives
(due to the fact that that money that will be unavailable for nanomedical
related developments that would significantly extend the lifespan of
millions of people).

In this particular case, it would seem to be a detriment to their quality of
> life, over the short-term. What do y'all think?
>

Should you educate them.  Yes.  You should however do so carefully.
Throwing the complete vision on them will most likely result in rejection.
"Everyone on the planet, living in a mansion like Bill Gates, for free, are
you NUTS!" [2]  My suggestion would be that you should never hand people the
conclusions unless you can explain reasonably well how one gets there.  And
getting people to the point where they even understand molecular
nanotechnology alone really requires reading entire textbooks.  But if
people can see the good and the bad side by side they can begin to consider
how to develop paths where the good is significantly favored over the bad.
For example the "grey goo" scenario has already been analysed in depth and
been found to be a situation that can be avoided.

Should I attempt to inform my friends?
>

Start them off slow with something like "Unbounding the Future" and then
maybe "The Spike" and/or "The Last Mortal Generation".  Then let them ask
questions.  Let them connect the dots.

Humanity ultimately has choices to make about where it wants to go and the
costs it is willing to endure (suffer?) in order to get there -- but getting
people to the point where they can see that is hard -- very hard.

Robert

1. The extended longevity part of the singularity vision significantly
extends natural human longevity in the direction of multi-thousand year
"natural" human lifespans.  So that part of it *significantly* reduces the
fraction of humanity that is "wiped out" on an annual basis.
2. That is the net conclusion one reaches if you ponder my Sapphire Mansions
paper for very long -- of course that is just the nanorobot/replicator
aspect of the Singularity vision.
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