[extropy-chat] FWD [U-Tapao] Science Fiction comes to life

[Terry Colvin]

-----Forwarded Message-----
>
>  The Science Fiction Files From the Author of Star Trek's Famous Episode
>"The Trouble With Tribbles" David Gerrold - PC Magazine
>
>*July 14* -
>
>Time travel, antigravity, teleportation, sentient silicon beings. Our
>yearning to visualize the future has always been far ahead of our
>technological prowess. To predict the future of technology in the 21st
>century and take a look back at preposterous postulations of the past, what
>better source to turn to than a bona fide science-fiction writer? After all,
>when sci-fi writers ask "What if?" their extrapolations are sometimes
>astonishingly accurate. We asked David Gerrold, sci-fi author and writer of
>the most-popular-ever *Star Trek* episode?"The Trouble with Tribbles," from
>the original TV series. Here's his survey of the high-tech imaginings of
>sci-fi writers Arthur C. Clarke, Robert A. Heinlein, Isaac Asimov, H.G.
>Wells, and more.
>
> *Cell phones:* In Robert A. Heinlein's 1954 book *The Star Beast*, hero
>John Thomas Stuart XI is riding his horse when he pulls his ringing phone
>out of his saddlebag. The first incarnation of a personal tricorder,
>Stuart's phone is also a video and voice recorder. Motorola's flip phone was
>inspired by the original *Star Trek* communicators.
>
> *Flat-screen TVs:* Oversize TV screens were visualized as early as the 1936
>movie *Things to Come*, and Isaac Asimov predicted wall-sized 3D videophones
>in *The Naked Sun* (1956), in which TV images have such lifelike clarity
>that people communicate only by video. But it wasn't until 1997 that Pioneer
>started selling HDTV plasma displays, which were 50 inches diagonal. At the
>2006 CES (Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas, Panasonic demonstrated a
>103-inch display.
>
> *Household robots:* Czech author Karel Capek's play *Rossum's Universal
>Robots* premiered in Prague in 1921, and he's credited with popularizing the
>word "robot." Lester Del Rey predicted household robots in "Helen O'Loy," a
>short story he wrote in 1938. And in one of Jack Williamson's most famous
>tales, "With Folded Hands" (1947), robots take over all human jobs to keep
>people from hurting themselves. Isaac Asimov is credited with developing the
>concept of self-contained, autonomous, human-like machines. His robot
>stories explored many of the philosophical questions of assimilating
>self-aware machines into society. Today we have industrial robots that
>assemble cars and motherboards, and Disneyland has the Asimo robot, which
>walks across a stage and waves. But we're still a long way away from useful
>general-purpose robots. Roomba isn't it. *DG Predicts: Robots are
>inevitable. I expect to see general-purpose robots available by 2015. *
>
> *The Internet:* The real honor of predicting the Internet goes to Murray
>Leinster's 1946 short story "A Logic Named Joe," in which people use devices
>called "logics," essentially television displays with keyboards attached. On
>these they can watch TV, get weather reports, ask research questions, send
>e-mail, trade stocks, and play games. Leinster's story also predicted
>content censorship.
>
>
>
>*Computer viruses:* I predicted hacking across telephone lines in my
>novel *When
>H.A.R.L.I.E. Was One* (1972), in which a self-aware computer uses a virus to
>invade other computers, reprogram them, and send back copies of other
>people's private information. In John Brunner's *The Shockwave
>Rider*(1975), a renegade genius creates a self-contained computer
>program to seek
>out and reveal government secrets. Brunner called it a worm, and the name
>was quickly adopted by computer scientists. Researchers at Xerox PARC
>demonstrated the first worm in 1978.
>
> *Space tourism:* Alfred Bester predicted space tourism long before Sputnik
>was launched, in *The Stars My Destination* (1956). But so far, at $20
>million per trip, it's not for everyone. Spider Robinson, Robert A.
>Heinlein, Arthur C. Clarke, and others predicted orbiting hotels, retirement
>communities on the Moon, and resorts on Mars, but don't plan on making
>reservations anytime soon. *DG Predicts: Maybe by 2050. And it'll be more
>like a trip to Antarctica than one to Hawaii. *
>
> *Lasers:* In 1898 H.G. Wells's Martians leveled London with heat rays. In
>the 1930s Buck Rogers wielded a ray gun, Boris Karloff had the invisible
>ray, and Ming of Mongo targeted strange death rays at Earth. The first
>commercial application of a laser was the bar code scanner used in
>supermarkets in 1974.
>
> *DVDs:* In a 1969 episode of *Star Trek*, Kirk and Spock visit a library of
>big silver discs. (They were actually vinyl records painted silver.) Two
>engineers who watched that episode began speculating about how to store
>information on a silver disc?possibly by reading pits with a laser. Five
>years later, MCA demonstrated the first LaserDisc, called DiscoVision, which
>hit the consumer market in 1978. Enthusiasts kept the format alive until the
>DVD effectively killed it.
>
> *Communications satellites:* In a 1945 paper Arthur C. Clarke proposed the
>use of geostationary satellites for communications with ground stations.
>Fifteen years later, he wrote "I Remember Babylon," a short story for *
>Playboy* in which he postulated that the Chinese government could use
>communications satellites to broadcast pornography to subvert and corrupt
>Western civilization. It was not until 1962 that Telstar, the first active
>communications satellite, was launched.
>
> *Cars that drive themselves:* In the 1950s General Motors showed a
>two-seater concept car with its own autopilot. Later concept vehicles
>tracked a magnetic stripe embedded in the pavement. In Robert A. Heinlein's
>*The Number of the Beast* (1979), Gay Deceiver is a robot car with a voice
>programmed to respond as if it's sentient. Today cruise control is standard,
>onboard processors monitor engine states, and several carmakers are building
>adaptive cruise controls with radar scanning to slow down or stop cars to
>avoid obstacles. Not there yet, but the pieces are falling into place. *DG
>Predicts: All the necessary technology is ready. It's mostly a software
>problem now. I expect to see robotic vehicles demonstrated within 10 years
>and commercially available within 20. *
>
> *Tethered satellites:* In their 1982 book *The Descent of Anansi*, Larry
>Niven and Steven Barnes predicted that two satellites linked by a cable and
>passing through Earth's magnetic field could generate an electrical current.
>NASA launched an experimental tethered satellite in 1992 and reflew the
>mission in 1996. Today, the only tethered satellite in orbit is the Tether
>Physics and Survivability Experiment, launched in 2005.
>
> *3D TV:* Sci-fi writers have predicted stereoscopic video (without glasses)
>for more than half a century. But in the 40 years since holograms were first
>demonstrated to the public, no company has shown even a crude prototype for
>projecting via holography a moving stereoscopic image. Fifty-three years
>after the premiere of *Bwana Devil*, most 3D movies still use polarized
>glasses or LCD shutter-glasses. *DG Predicts: If and when holographic video
>is viable, expect to see it in theme parks first. *
>
> *Impact suits:* Larry Niven predicted flexible body armor in a 1967 short
>story called "The Soft Weapon." And in 1972 he and I published *The Flying
>Sorcerers*, in which the hero wears an impact suit?a suit that's flexible
>under normal conditions but goes rigid on impact to protect the wearer. At
>the 2006 Winter Olympics, the U.S. Olympic ski team wore impact suits made
>by the Colorado-based company Spyder Active Sports.
>
>
>
>*Jet backpacks:* The personal jet backpack debuted in the *Buck
>Rogers*comic strip circa 1930, and the German military experimented
>with them
>during World War II as a way for engineers to fly over minefields. The
>RB2000 model is occasionally demonstrated at amusement parks and air shows,
>but it's painfully loud, and flights are limited to 30 seconds. It's
>unlikely that a rocket belt will ever be practical for commuting. (See
>"Flying Cars" on the next page.)
>
> *Permanent colonies on the Moon and Mars:* These are such staples in
>science fiction that it would be easier to list the writers who haven't set
>stories in lunar and Martian habitats. The most notable who have are Robert
>A. Heinlein, Arthur C. Clarke, Ray Bradbury, and John Varley. *DG
>Predicts:These are inevitable. Just add money. If we don't do it, the
>Chinese will.
>2025 at the latest. *
>
> *Miniaturized electronics:* In the 1956 movie *Forbidden Planet*, Captain
>J. J. Adams uses a handheld television camera the size of a penlight to
>broadcast video back to his starship. In the *Star Trek* series, Dr. Leonard
>"Bones" McCoy uses a medical tricorder the size of a hardcover book to
>perform instantaneous diagnoses of injured crewmates. Today, any portable
>device that can't fit into a pocket is considered too large.
>
>
>
> *Maglevs:* In *Starman Jones* (1953), Robert A. Heinlein's hero lives near
>the track of a linear-accelerated flying train. The world's first commercial
>magnetically levitated train, launched in 2002, runs 18 miles to the
>Shanghai airport at an average speed of 250 mph. The trip takes less than 8
>minutes, but the system cost $1.2 billion to build. That's nearly $67
>million per mile! There is a 5-mile maglev track in Nagoya, Japan; a 27-mile
>demonstration track, also in Japan; and a 21-mile demo track in Germany. The
>primary advantage of maglev is speed, so it's best suited for transport
>between cities. An American maglev effort is estimated to cost $15 million
>to 20 million per mile.
>
> *Videophones:* Hugo Gernsback predicted videophones in his 1929 novel *Ralph
>124C41+: A Romance of the Year 2660*, and the idea came to a mass audience
>through the 1939 *Buck Rogers* Saturday afternoon serial. Both Isaac Asimov
>and Robert A. Heinlein used videophones in their novels, and two-way video
>is routine in *Star Trek* episodes. Technologies for video telephony have
>been demonstrated since Disneyland's House of the Future (1957) and the New
>York World's Fair (1964-65). 3G videophones are available in Europe and
>Asia, but picture quality is relatively poor. *DG Predicts: After the
>gosh-wow factor wears off (in about five minutes), we'll discover that video
>is the least-important part of a phone call. Practical video telephony will
>probably happen on the Internet first, but I don't foresee video calls
>becoming commonplace for a while. *
>
> *Hydroponics and indoor farming:* When humans move to Mars or the Moon,
>they'll feed themselves by growing food in tanks. Despite the fact that
>hydroponic research has been around for a century, hydroponics remained on
>the fringe until the 1950s and 1960s, when scores of authors started writing
>about it. John Brunner explored the theme of using it in outer space in his
>1972 novel *The Sheep Look Up*. Today hydroponics is used primarily by
>hobbyists, organic farmers, and marijuana growers. It also lets researchers
>in Antarctica have fresh vegetables, even during the six-month winter, when
>the bases are inaccessible. Hydroponics remains a very small factor in
>terrestrial agriculture, but it will be the main food supply in lunar and
>Martian colonies.
>
>  *Nanotechnology:* In Theodore Sturgeon's story "Microcosmic God" (1941), a
>scientist creates microscopic beings who evolve superfast, build their own
>Microverse, and eventually surpass even humanity. In the November 1955 issue
>of *Galaxy Science Fiction*, Philip K. Dick published a story called
>"Autofac." In it he predicted robot factories, where micro-machines, smaller
>than ants, construct duplicates of themselves. Today the nanotech revolution
>is under way, and we have devices similar to inkjet printers on steroids
>that generate 3D objects. Printing live tissue for transplants or printing
>steaks for dinner is a possibility. *DG Predicts: Organic fabbers? Printers
>that can print heart valves have already been demonstrated. Are fabbed
>tissues and organs that far off? I think not. We'll see industrial units in
>five years and home units within ten. *
>
>  *Flying cars:* The first movie to show personal flying vehicles was *Just
>Imagine*, released in 1930. (It was an embarrassing flop at the box office,
>but its spaceship was reused in the *Flash Gordon* and *Buck Rogers* matinee
>serials.) Since then, the flying car has been a mainstay of sci-fi novels
>and movies. A.E. van Vogt's hero used a flying car in *The World of
>Null-A*(1948), as did Robert A. Heinlein's characters in
>*Stranger in a Strange Land* (1961). At the movies, *Blade Runner* (1982)
>and *The Fifth Element* (1997) both show flying cars navigating through the
>concrete canyons of futuristic cities.
>
> One of the earliest attempts to build an actual flying car was in 1973,
>when engineers welded the wings of a Cessna Skymaster to a Ford Pinto. The
>prototype crashed, ending the project. The most notorious of all personal
>flying vehicles was the Discojet now known as the Moller Skycar, first
>developed in 1974. More than $200 million has been spent on it, but it's
>very loud and difficult to control in crosswinds. The M400 model currently
>under development is likely to cost a million dollars if it ever hits the
>market.
>
>  *Three Mile Island, Chernobyl:* In his 1942 novel *Nerves*, Lester Del Rey
>detailed a nuclear disaster at a power plant. The story isn't a prediction
>as much as an unheeded warning.
>
>  *Voice recognition:* Mike, the computer in Robert A. Heinlein's *The Moon
>Is a Harsh Mistress* (1966), not only understands speech, he also learns how
>to make jokes?even puns. HAL 9000, in *2001: A Space Odyssey *(1968), can
>understand speech and read lips. Speech recognition software is available
>today, but it has not yet been perfected.
>
> *Bubble houses:* In *Gladiator-at-Law* (1954), Fred Pohl and Cyril
>Kornbluth predicted near-instant housing. In that novel, large corporations
>manufacture and sell "bubble houses" like cars. Other writers have predicted
>inflatable housing: Blow up a large balloon, spray it with foam that
>hardens, and you have an instant dome. Cut a door, install lights and
>plumbing, you're home. Several large buildings have been erected in just an
>hour by inflating a balloon under a thick layer of wet concrete, but the
>process remains a novelty.
>
>  *The orbital elevator:* If you can make a carbon nanotube ribbon 62,000
>miles long, you can hang a cable from space down to Earth's surface and run
>elevators up and down. Arthur C. Clarke, Charles Sheffield, and I?others
>too?have written novels about the mechanics as well as the economics of
>orbital elevators. According to NASA, such an elevator would reduce the
>per-pound cost of launching a payload into space by 98 percent, from $20,000
>to $400. The LiftPort Group, a private U.S. company, plans to have a cable
>in place by 2018. *DG Predicts: I'm not as optimistic as the folks at
>LiftPort. Anyone who's ever hired a contractor knows that it always takes
>twice as long and costs twice as much as expected. I say 2030, maybe longer.
>But I'm ready to go today! *
>
>  *Sentient machines:* Robert A. Heinlein wrote about Mike, short for
>Mycroft, in 1966 (*The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress*). In 1968, Arthur C. Clarke
>introduced HAL 9000 (*2001: A Space Odyssey*), and some guy named Gerrold
>started writing stories about H.A.R.L.I.E. in 1969. Another sentient
>computer showed up in the 1969 movie *Colossus: The Forbin Project*. Today,
>after 50 years of intense development and research, the average desktop
>computer has finally achieved the intelligence of a desert gecko.
>Considering nature took several million years, this is enormous progress. *DG
>Predicts: True intelligence is rooted in pattern recognition, and
>intelligence engines are most likely to evolve from self-teaching neural
>networks. We might see the experimental beginnings of silicon self-awareness
>by 2020, but I doubt we'll see HAL 9000 or Asimov's robots before 2040. *
>
>
>
>*Trans-humans:* Sci-fi writers have predicted that future humans will have
>technologically augmented bodies and electronically implanted brains.
>They'll be bio-processed, gene-spliced, mutated, and enhanced. In the "Sixth
>Finger" episode of the television series *The Outer Limits* (1963), David
>McCallum was pushed up the evolutionary path to become a super-being. More
>recently, in *The Matrix*, human beings are implanted with computer
>connections so they can experience a virtual world as reality. *DG
>Predicts:We're already modifying ourselves with cosmetic surgery,
>hearing aids,
>artificial hips, pacemakers, steroids, and organ transplants. These are the
>bits and pieces of trans-human evolution. We just haven't seen all the
>synergistic combinations yet. A century from now, we could be a
>self-designed species. *
>
> *Copyright (c) 2006  Ziff Davis Media Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material
>may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.*