[extropy-chat] Peak Oil news

Lee Corbin lcorbin at tsoft.com
Wed Mar 8 14:41:56 UTC 2006

Robin writes

> At 08:10 AM 3/8/2006, Lee Corbin wrote:
> > I venture to say that anyone who's studied Gold's fine book
> > will significantly change his odds more towards the abiotic
> > theory, (even if he retains probability at less than
> > fifty percent).
> This can only be true on average for rational people if they do not believe
> your claim.

Well, I suppose that we can dismiss them out of hand at once.

> If I believed you [that's more like it] that my odds
> would go up after reading the book, I would just raise
> my odds in anticipation of that, even if I never read
> the book.

Then, having read my note, you must consider yourself therefore
more enlightened. You are welcome.

> If I am rational, I must expect that reading a book arguing
> for a position on some subject will be as likely to move me
> away from that position as to move me closer.

Another big if   :-)   

No. Surely in all seriousness you must admit that the 
credibility that you extend me might prove to be quite
a bit lower than the credibility that you extend someone
like Gold after having read a book you can't help but 
find extremely impressive.

> (More precisely my expected value of my future
> expectation must equal my current expectation.)

While that is quite right, it might be interpreted by
many to mean that you shouldn't bother consulting 
original sources at all.


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