[extropy-chat] Islamic morons win yet again Resend 2
pharos at gmail.com
Sun Oct 1 14:17:31 UTC 2006
On 10/1/06, Keith Henson wrote:
> A similar terror campaign that burned out in roughly the same time frame is
> the Basque. Anyone have income and birth rate data for that group? While
> I think birth rate was the substantial factor, oil income for the UK which
> increased the income per capita, could have also contributed to the general
> brightening of future prospects and (according to the model) that ration is
> the key to terror or war support.
> I agree, the causal arrow in the model goes the other way, the falling
> birth rate increased income per capita, which made the future seem
> brighter, which reduced the support for wars and related such as terrorism
> True. But the IRA supporters in the time frame when they were most active
> were (in theory) looking at a bleak future, more so than other places in
> the UK or other European states. As you mention discrimination is a big
> factor in feeling you have a bleak future.
> I am sure they are. But the model predicts that as long as the future
> prospects are good, the IRA or some other terrorist organization will not
> get popular support.
That is why I am saying that NI is a bad example for you to use. The
NI troubles were not a 'war' and killed a tiny percentage of the
population. The same falling birth rates applied in many places where
there were no 'troubles'.
So NI is not an example that supports your theory that nations go into
'war' mode and fight until they have killed sufficient people that the
survivors can live better. Even though the war itself will destroy
resources that support people. Think 'scorched earth'. Terrorism never
kills in sufficient numbers to fit into your theory.
I don't think you really want to weaken your claim to say that
sometimes small groups of people start killing when they feel a bit
miserable and stop killing when they cheer up. But that seems to be
the direction you are heading. That claim is correct, of course, but
not of great significance.
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