[extropy-chat] exit polls

[Joseph Bloch]

Bear in mind that exit polls are _not_ designed to predict winners, but 
rather to determine demographics and attitudes of voters (which is why 
objections that exit polls don't match vote counts are nonsense; they 
are not meant to measure the same thing).

Traditionally, the precincts which are subjected to exit polls are very 
carefully selected so that in aggregate they represent a viable 
cross-section of the voting population. Just because one particular 
precinct isn't exit polled doesn't mean that the voters in that precinct 
are not represented in the exit poll; there is an intricate means of 
determining which precincts to poll, so that the entire electorate is 
represented.

See http://www.exit-poll.net/ for some more info.

Joseph

spike wrote:

>  
>
>>bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Damien Broderick
>>Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] exit polls
>>
>>At 07:47 AM 10/4/2006 -0700, Spike wrote:
>>
>>    
>>
>>>...  If pollsters are afraid to go in
>>>there, they don't get counted in exit polls.
>>>      
>>>
>>And this explains the *under*-representation of voters for "rightist"
>>candidates in such exit polls? (Or have I misunderstood your claim?)
>>
>>Damien Broderick
>>    
>>
>
>I need to review what I posted, but my intention was that this mechanism
>would account for under-representation of voters in the exit polls for
>left-leaning candidates.  I am thinking of a list of factors that account
>for inaccuracies in exit polls.  There were factors on both sides, but this
>one looked like a biggie to me, or perhaps my view is being influenced by
>the bad section of town where I grew up.  My memory is vague, it is entirely
>possible that the list I am referring to was partly derived on ExI.  Did we
>discuss this before?
>
>spike
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