[extropy-chat] Islamic morons win yet again Resend 2
pharos at gmail.com
Sat Sep 30 22:49:45 UTC 2006
On 9/30/06, Keith Henson wrote:
> And the *most important* element is to reduce the birth rate to below the
> growth of the economy. That's what happened in Northern Ireland and I make
> the case it is the reason for the IRA going out of business.
I think you have a general claim that has a lot of substance.
I'm just a bit worried that using Northern Ireland as your main
example may weaken your case, as many objections can be raised against
that specific example. And if someone produces strong arguments
against NI, your more general claim may be weakened.
NI is one economy containing two intermingled warring groups.
Not two competing economies / nations. I think your claim would be
better demonstrated by using nations as examples. e.g. Germany and
(I don't know if this is a good example. I'll leave that up to you). :)
The NI birth rate peaked in the 1961-65 period at 23 / 1000, then fell
fairly steadily in every 5yr period until 1996-2000 when it was 13.9 /
1000. This is roughly in line with the steadily falling birthrate for
the UK as a whole.
i.e. the troubles didn't cause the fall in the birth rate. The fall
was caused by being part of a modern European state, as all European
birth rates were falling during that period. And the fighting was only
in NI, not in the UK and other European states.
I could make more suggestions about why the troubles have reduced, but
I doubt it really matters for the purposes of this argument. Some
claim the IRA is still there. It has just switched away from bombing
to more gangster-like criminal activities. And they are making a very
nice living from these activities, as their armoury tends to
discourage the civil police from investigating too closely. Political
changes may have stopped the Catholic IRA supporters from feeling as
persecuted as they used to be. It is a very complex situation, with no
neat 'sound-bite' solutions. Everyone is really holding their breath
and keeping their fingers crossed over there.
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