[extropy-chat] About ESP, etc.

[gts]

On Mon, 30 Apr 2007 13:24:59 -0400, Benjamin Goertzel <ben at goertzel.org>  
wrote:

> -- Basically, you then want to bet more when a lot of "10's etc." have  
> been dealt, and bet less when a lot of "2-6"'s have been dealt. Because  
> you are more likely to get screwed when hit with a "10 etc." than with a  
> "2-6"

You have it exactly backward, Ben. :)

The card-counter increases his wager when a lot of low cards and non-aces  
have been dealt, because the odds favor of the player when the deck is  
rich in high cards and aces.

Two basic reasons why this works:

1) A preponderance of high cards in the deck works against the house  
because the dealer must hit to reach 17 or better on a stiff hand (12 thru  
16), likely busting with a high-card, while the player can avoid going  
over 21 by standing on a stiff.

2) A preponderance of high cards + aces in the deck works in favor of the  
player because of the increased probability of someone at the table  
getting a blackjack. It could be the dealer who gets a blackjack, but  
blackjacks favor the player over the dealer because of the asymmetry in  
the payoffs: blackjacks pay a player 1.5 x the original bet only 1x for  
the dealer.

-gts