[ExI] on inflation in long term thinking

[Lee Corbin]

Russell writes

> Different kinds of hypothetical danger generate different responses in people - we are not Bayesian agents, after all (more on 
> that below). I agree of course that it would be un-Christian to simply make such assumptions, which is why I am not doing so - my 
> claims regarding the pitfalls here are based on first-hand experience; I spent awhile in this trap myself.<

Your passage wasn't very clear to me.  Mind elaborating on
the "trap" you were in; e.g., the circumstances or examples?


> > (I read a few pages of "The Black Swan", I think it's called, which
> > has some very telling anecdotes about making overly detailed plans
> > concerning a too uncertain future.  And reading prognostications
> > that are even four years old, e.g. "Robotic Nation", causes one to

Argh.  I do *not* recommend that particular, extremely economically
ignorant story, or Marshall  Brain's silly essays---hope no one thought I did.

> > see how very quickly our guesses become outdated.)

> *nods* The Black Swan is good reading - some of the polemics are
> skippable, but Taleb also makes some very good points.

> > Can't some agreement be reached here simply by each of us
> > assigning different probabilities to various risks?  In other words,
> > is anything really new here?

> Partly. I don't think we're disagreeing on values - maybe not everyone here has exactly the same values, but I would guess close 
> enough to the same for these purposes. Part of it is different probabilities, but I wince at using that word, because part of it 
> is also a difference in philosophical approach. I am not a Bayesian. Oh don't get me wrong, Bayesian reasoning is normative _where 
> applicable_. But for human beings in the real world (as opposed to mathematically abstracted agents in a closed-world toy 
> universe), it usually is not applicable. In the absence of hard statistical data, "probability" assignments are nothing of the 
> sort, and the kind of errors Bayes will help you with are on the whole not the kind people actually make.
<

Well, it's been a while since we've discussed Bayesianity.  My
own views have shifted a bit.  Would you mind elaborating
on your disagreement with Bayesianism, or providing some
links?  (Preferably in a new thread.)

Thanks,
Lee





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