[ExI] Bayesian epistemology

[Eliezer S. Yudkowsky]

Michael M. Butler wrote:
>>It appears you may be unclear about the distinction between
>>probability and likelihood.
> 
> 
> 1) It's been a while since I've cracked open my E. T. Jaynes
> (_Probability Theory As Extended Logic_) and I seem to have packed it
> prior to my recent move. Can you point me (us) to someone on teh
> Intarweb who does a good concise job of making this distinction clear
> in a Bayesian (but not Bayesianismistic) context?

http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html
(albeit it's quite Bayesianitarian)

In simple terms, "likelihood" is the probability of seeing evidence E 
if a hypothesis H is true; it refers to p(E|H).  It is not to be 
confused with p(H) or p(H|E), respectively the probability of the 
hypothesis, and the posterior probability of the hypothesis after 
taking into account the evidence.  If that confused you see the above 
website.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence