[extropy-chat] what is probability?

gts gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Mon Jan 1 18:31:11 UTC 2007

On Sun, 31 Dec 2006 20:00:26 -0500, Jef Allbright <jef at jefallbright.net>  

> gts wrote:
>> Which statement is most true?
>> A) E is frequent because it is probable.
>> B) E is probable because it is frequent.
> It would be helpful, highlighted by the example of (A), to clarify the
> complementary usage of "probability" and "likelihood".  Once again,
> clear terminology is vital...

The purpose of my question is to help the reader discover on his own which  
of the two objectivist interpretations of probability he is likely to  
prefer (while leaving open the question of subjective/epistemic  

I could write (A) as "E is frequent because it is has a high propensity to  
occur" but this would at least partially defeat the purpose of the  

(But now the cat is out of the bag in any case. So much for the Socratic  
method. :)

(A) seems most correct to me, but I wonder if perhaps others here might  
disagree. Certainly frequency theorists would prefer (B).


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