[extropy-chat] what is probability?.
John K Clark
jonkc at att.net
Mon Jan 1 23:33:12 UTC 2007
gts wrote:
> Which statement is most true?
> A) E is frequent because it is probable.
> B) E is probable because it is frequent.
If Copenhagen is right then something is frequent because it is probable. If
Many Worlds is right then something is probable because it is frequent.
But that introduces an interesting matter. I could be dead wrong, believe it
or not I've been wrong before, but it seems to me that if Many World is
right there may be a ten hundred thousand million billion trillion goggle
googolplex (googolplex is one followed by a googol zeroes, goggle is 1
followed by a hundred zeros) to the googolplex power, to the googolplex
power, to the googolplex power, to the googolplex power, number of
universes. But there can't be a INFINITE number of universes.
In MWI everything is possible, but everybody knows some things are more
likely than others; it is possible for a tornado to enter a junkyard and
assemble a fully functional Bowing 747, but it is astronomically unlikely
that you are lucky enough to be living in such a astoundingly rare universe.
The trouble is, funny things happen when you introduce infinity to
statistics and probability. If there are ten hundred thousand million
billion
trillion universes where a tornado does such an extraordinary thing and a
infinite number where it does not, then the probably you will be living in
such a wonderful universe are zero, not almost zero, but absolutely
precisely exactly ZERO. If you want infinite universes then you need
statistical mathematics that can accommodate infinity, we don't have that
yet.
John K Clark
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