[extropy-chat] what is probability?.

The Avantguardian avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com
Sat Jan 6 22:27:04 UTC 2007

--- John K Clark <jonkc at att.net> wrote:

> "gts" <gts_2000 at yahoo.com>
> > something is frequent because it is  probable" is
> to say that the 
> > probability of an outcome is a property of  the
> object itself
> If Copenhagen is right then I think that must be
> true; but if it is true 
> then the Monty Hall problem escalates from an
> amusing little puzzle into a 
> full blown logical paradox.

Yes. There seems to be only three ways out of this
conundrum of the Monty Hall problem under Copenhagen:

1. Conscious observers are needed to resolve the
liklihood of an event and probability itself is
epistemological in nature.

2. In the absence of any known conscious observers,
the inanimate objects of the universe make Bayesian
style INFERENCES regarding the liklihood of events
"happening" to them based on previous outcomes. Thus
probability is ontological in nature. Note that this
implies that every bit of the universe has "memory"
and makes "decisions".

3. 1 and 2 are not mutually exclusive and thus both
ontological and epistemological probabilities exist.



Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu

"Aagghh! Who knew that bio-engineered food would lead to smart puke."
-Willy the school janitor from the Simpsons.

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