[extropy-chat] what is probability?"
jef at jefallbright.net
Thu Jan 11 20:48:07 UTC 2007
> --- Jef Allbright <jef at jefallbright.net> wrote:
> > I suspect we're using the term "subjective"
> So that you know, I mean something very precise by that term
> in the context of this question about probability theory:
> A subjective probabilist is one who has no theoretical
> problem with two individuals using different bayesian priors
> about the same situation, provided only that those priors are
Well, to use your "very precise" terminology. I "have no theoretical
problem" with what you've stated below.
It seems as simple and obvious as the principle of indeterminacy and is
really just a restatement of that principle in the context of optimum
decision-making under uncertainty.
> "coherent" means here that no so-called "dutch books"
> may be made against the agent by a clever adversary in a
> betting arrangement in which the agent places multiple bets
> on an outcome consistent with his subjective degrees of
> belief. A "dutch book" is a sort of arbitrage situation in
> which the agent would lose no matter the outcome because of
> the incoherency of his bets.
> This is how the subjective theory was elucidated by both
> Frank Ramsey and Bruno de Finetti, each of whom discovered
> the theory independently of one another.
> More accurately they discovered that the simple coherency
> constraint on bets as described above was sufficient to
> satisfy the axioms of probability, with no need for
> logical/rational constraints and the problems they entail,
> which I think is very interesting...
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
More information about the extropy-chat