[extropy-chat] what is probability?

Russell Wallace russell.wallace at gmail.com
Mon Jan 15 01:40:13 UTC 2007

On 1/14/07, gts <gts_2000 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> And even assuming his argument is correct for the random chord paradox,
> how is it in any way translatable to the other paradoxes?

It's not.

If the Bertrand paradox is fundamentally unsolvable then it seems to me
> the principle of indifference is toast as a logical principle

The principle of indifference was never valid as a logical principle. If I
know a coin is unbiased, I'm justified in claiming the probability of heads
on the next toss is 0.5. If all I know is that A or B will happen, and
nothing else, I am _not_ justified in claiming the probability of A is 0.5.
It might be something completely different.

and if so
> then it seems two rational agents would be free in certain cases to use
> different bayesian priors.

Of course. Logic is about deriving conclusions from axioms; it doesn't tell
you anything about what axioms you should have.

I would guess that thought is probably anathema to AI researchers; we want
> to know all robots of a kind will think and act identically under
> identical circumstances, yes? Or do we? Real humans seem not to.

All robots that are identically programmed will think and act under
identical circumstances. If they're not identically programmed they won't,
same as humans don't. What of it?
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