[extropy-chat] what is probability?

gts gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Mon Jan 15 17:53:08 UTC 2007

By the way I think you put it very succinctly here, Russell:

> The principle of indifference was never valid as a logical principle. If  
> I know a coin is unbiased, I'm justified in claiming the probability of  
> heads on the next toss is 0.5. If all I know is that A or B will happen,  
> and nothing else, I am _not_ justified in claiming the probability of A  
> is 0.5. It might be something completely different.


This is a major bone of contention. Some people here insist (in private  
email as well as here) that the PI is some kind of universal logical  
principle. Naive dogmatism, I say.


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