[extropy-chat] what is probability?
gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Mon Jan 15 17:53:08 UTC 2007
By the way I think you put it very succinctly here, Russell:
> The principle of indifference was never valid as a logical principle. If
> I know a coin is unbiased, I'm justified in claiming the probability of
> heads on the next toss is 0.5. If all I know is that A or B will happen,
> and nothing else, I am _not_ justified in claiming the probability of A
> is 0.5. It might be something completely different.
This is a major bone of contention. Some people here insist (in private
email as well as here) that the PI is some kind of universal logical
principle. Naive dogmatism, I say.
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